Trevor Lawrence to Shine at Arrowhead with Top 5 QB Showing

By Mike Rose

Last week’s headline for the QB Props piece read like this: Justin Fields to smash rushing yard prop! And boy did he ever after coming up just short of breaking Colin Kaepernick’s record for most yards gained by a quarterback in a single game (181). Still, the 178 yard effort smashed his laughable 48.5-yard impost. I said last week that we’d stop blindly backing the over until PointsBet Sportsbook starts to open it up in the high 50s. Guess what, that’s exactly where it opened this week ;) But the fun didn’t just end with the Bears QB1 - Geno Smith went on to surpass his passing yards impost against the Cardinals, while Mac Jones stayed under his to allow us to cash a wire-to-wire under ticket. Man it felt good to bust out the broom!


We’ve experienced some success betting QB props over the last three weeks and I’m confident that trend continues. Here’s to adding more to the bottom line in Week 10!


Bet Week 10 QB Props at PointsBet Sportsbook


Kenny Pickett Over 223.5 Passing Yards -115


It’s been a rough go for the Steelers rookie QB1, but that should have been expected with Kenny Pickett forced to run up against Buffalo, Tampa Bay, Miami, and Philadelphia in his first four starts. We even took advantage hitting the under of his yardage prop last time out against the Eagles. He failed to go over and hooked us up with a ticket cash. After fading him in that spot, I’m more than willing to jump in his corner against a New Orleans squad coming in on life support. I haven’t been a fan of what I’ve seen from the Saints under Dennis Allen’s watch. The defense has been nothing if not piss poor, and I fully expect that to continue in Week 10 with the Steelers returning to their home gridiron refreshed off the bye.


The Saints might look good on paper versus the pass coming in ranked ninth overall in allowing fewer than 200 yards per game, but it had been pretty brutal from Week 6-8 giving up a ton of fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks (55.5) while also getting next to no pressure evidenced by a 27.4 percent pressure rate (No. 27). I expect that trend to continue with Marshon Lattimore continuing to roam the sideline. The Steelers passing offense will flourish with Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, and Pat Freiermuth in an advantageous position. Look for Pickett’s counting stats to benefit because of it!


Points-Bet-Banner-Sep-29-2022-03-57-25-54-PMRussell Wilson Over 226.5 Rushing Yards -110


If ever it’s going to happen for Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos offense, it’s going to be this week in Tennessee coming off the bye. The results have been nothing if not catastrophic to start the season for a Denver team expected by many to give the Chiefs a major run for their money atop the AFC West standings. They’ve done been anything but. However, the team fought back to secure a huge comeback win over Jacksonville in London, and took that momentum with them into the off week. Tennessee is a bruised and battered team right now having just partaken in an overtime bout with the Chiefs last Sunday night.


The Titans pass defense allowed KC’s QB1 to throw for nearly 450 yards! While Wilson is no Mahomes, he’s still got the intangibles to take advantage of Tennessee’s weak link on the defensive side of the ball that comes with stopping the pass. The Titz serve up over 275 yards per game (No. 30) and a healthy 6.8 yards per pass attempt (No. 21). It also serves up over 278 air yards per game (No. 26). The Titans have done a decent job getting pressure on opposing QBs (No. 12), but Wilson has been league average when under pressure to date (-0.35 EPA). With Jeffrey Simmons and Bud Dupree each banged up, look for Denver’s offense to finally flourish – mainly Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy - and start kicking butt and taking names like it was initially expected to do!


Trevor Lawrence Over 238.5 Passing Yards -115 & Over 34 Pass Attempts


Numbers to beat hadn’t hit the board at the time of this writing. I’m guessing Trevor Lawrence’s yardage prop comes out in the upper 230s though it should be lined closer to 250 with the amount of passes the second-year field general will need to launch just to keep pace with Patrick Mahomes in Arrowhead Stadium. Kansas City enters this bout on short rest after just partaking in a physical matchup with the Tennessee Titans that needed an overtime session to crown the winner. I don’t expect the defense to be up to snuff chasing the Jags young and spirited pass catchers all over the field. Chunk yards will be gained!


Lawrence has thrown 40+ passes in a game only three times this season. His final passing yard outputs in those games read like this: 275, 286, and 310. Linemakers expect this to be a high scoring affair with it garnering the highest point total of the Week 10 slate. As great Travis Etienne has been running the football in recent weeks, he’s going to have his hands full dealing with the Chiefs fifth ranked run defense that’s only allowed 100+ yards to Josh Jacobs and Derrick Henry. As such, Lawrence will be asked to take advantage of KC’s No. 24 ranked pass defense in both yardage allowed and DVOA. I expect him to be more than up to the challenge and thrive in a match I give Jacksonville a much better chance to win than its 23.3 percent implied probability suggests over at PointsBet. These are my two favorite QB props of the week!