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Last Thursday’s MLB Best Bets made it back-to-back weeks that we failed to cash a single ticket at BetRivers Sportsbook. Grayson Rodriguez grossly failed to come up big for us after giving up 6 ER through 3.2 innings to come up short of exceeding his pitching outs and K props against the Royals. Though the Brewers put their highest run total on the board in the finale of their three-game set at Coors (6), it still wasn’t enough to surpass their 6.5-run team total. I’ve beaten my chest when I’ve won, so it’s only necessary to report the bad news when I lose. Last week was an unmitigated disaster. Here’s to better results with this Thursday’s trio of best bets – SLAM YOUR MAN!!
YTD: 54-54-3 (-$295)
LW: 8-14 (-$840)
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New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds
Gonna take a shot here in the first five innings with the Redlegs who’ve got one of the better up-and-coming left-handers on the bump squaring off against a Mets offense that’s been pretty unremarkable against LHP to date. New York is averaging just 2.7 runs per game against southpaws (No. 29) on the back of a .706 OPS (No. 22). While 4-1 with a commendable 3.38 ERA, Kodai Senga’s 5.19 FIP lets it be known his defense – one that’s only committed 12 errors (No. 3) – has played a large role in New York winning all but one of his six made starts.
But we aren’t fading the Mets for the full game with this investment. We’re backing Nick Lodolo early on instead with the young left-hander looking to improve upon his 2-1 record regardless of owning a 6.29 ERA and 13.1 hit per nine average. He ranks No. 26 in K percentage and No. 15 in called strike + whiff percentage, and only the Giants have gone down on strikes against lefties more than the Mets. With Senga serving up over six walks per nine, the hope here is that Jonathan India and co. plate some early runs and Lodolo takes advantage in the series concluder.
BET THE REDS FIRST FIVE INNINGS + OVER NICK LODOLO’S K PROP
San Diego Padres vs. Minnesota Twins
With Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda on the shelf for the foreseeable future, Bailey Ober has got himself a solidified spot within the Twinkies starting rotation. If he continues to pitch like he has since being thrust into the rotation due to injuries, it might be tough to remove him once the walking wounded return. Through three starts, the righty is 2-0 with a 0.98 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 17.6 hard contact percentage. Those outputs jump off the page, but we must take into account the caliber of opposition faced during those starts.
They read: Washington, Kansas City, and Cleveland – three teams whose OPS rank amongst the worst in the league! That being said, this figures to be a decent spot for the righty running up against a weak 4-seamer hitting Padres team with only Matt Carpenter, Nelson Cruz, and Fernando Tatis Jr. sporting positive run values against the pitch type. If able to successfully locate his gas up in the zone like he has to this point, I think he can go mano a mano with Yu Darvish and not get embarrassed. Minnesota’s done a decent job protecting its house in winning 10 of 16 games, so I think they’re worth a stab as home dogs with the offense the healthiest it’s been all season.
BET THE TWINS
Texas Rangers vs. Oakland A’s
With Nathan Eovaldi not giving up a single run in his last 20 innings and the Rangers ranking out as the best LHP team in the game averaging 7.4 runs, many an MLB bettor will be sprinting to the betting window to lay their hard earned money on Texas for the opener of this extended four-game series with the wretched A’s. However, crazy things go down in the Coliseum at night and I’m thinking this spot is ripe for an upset to play out with the ‘Gers invading Oakland off crucial series played in Anaheim and Seattle.
No ifs, ands or buts about it, Eovaldi is locked in right now with the righty only conceding 14 hits and 3 ER with a K/BB ratio of 20:3 over his last 23 IP. That being said, I’m wondering if any gas will be left in the tank to take advantage of a poor A’s offense coming off major tests against the Yankees and Angels. Very little jumps off the page about Ken Waldichuk evidenced by a poor 7.25 ERA and even more pathetic 3.0 home run and 4.5 walk per nine inning outputs, but this bet is more a fade of the Rangers endurance more than anything else. At this rate, the A’s will win 40+ games. Fingers crossed this is one of them!
BET THE A’S
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