Thursday, April 27 MLB Best Bets

We only had action in one game due to Graham Ashcraft’s start against the Pirates getting pushed back to Friday. It only took a half inning for me to wish we didn’t after Patrick Sandoval was raked for five runs by Anthony Rizzo and co. The end result was the Yankees highest scoring output in their last 11 games – FUN! In making the quick donation to BetRivers Sportsbook, Thursday’s MLB Best Bets went 0-1 and cost us a unit. Let’s see if we can’t get back in the black with this Thursday’s trio of best bets – SLAM YOUR MAN!!

YTD: 34-30-3 ($332)

LW: 10-7-1 ($115)

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San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs

The Cubs offense has been a joy to watch for many a fan of the “Loveable Losers” after watching the hot garbage the team marched into the batter’s box recently. The unit as a whole is plating 5.7 runs per game (No. 3) while ranking No. 2 in both batting average (.280) and OPS (.797). However, it’s only managed to split its 14 played games against right-handed pitching and has had all sorts of issues with the curveball with only three players – Hoerner, Suzuki, Madrigal – logging positive run values per Baseball Savant.

The “Uncle Charlie” just so happens to be Seth Lugo’s most effective pitch with it generating a 12.9 swinging strike percentage and 64 percent ground ball rate. The righty has been a pleasant surprise in the Friars’ rotation to start the year in going 2-1 with a 2.78 ERA and 23:6 K/BB ratio. The same can’t and won’t be said of Chicago’s Hayden Wesneski who save for a brilliant showing at Oakland has allowed at least 3 ER in his three other starts. He owns a bloated 12.71 ERA at Wrigley Field and San Diego has mashed the fastball and slider – his two preferred pitches. This calls for moneyline and -1.5 run-line wagers on San Diego to make it a -1 run wager.

BET THE PADRES

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox

Dylan Cease vs. Shane McClanahan II is set to play out in Guaranteed Rate on Thursday night, and we’re going right back to the well with the under in the first five innings under. We were forced to swallow a bitter pill in the first matchup at “The Trop” on Saturday when we touted under 3.5 and five runs were put on the board. Four of the runs came by way of the home run with two coming off the southpaws’ arm which came as quite the surprise with McClanahan’s home runs allowed per nine innings still only clocking in at 0.6 following the outing. In other words, they were the first two surrendered to date.

Both starters combined to allow nine hits and two walks while registering 15 strikeouts through their combined 10 innings of work. The 25.3 pitches thrown per inning by Cease were his most thrown to date. Naturally, it resulted in his shortest stint of the MLB betting season. I expect adjustments to be made and for both hurlers to be even more efficient and lethal with each now in the know of how to better attack the opposition.

BET FIRST FIVE INNINGS UNDER

New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers

We rode the Yankees on the moneyline and -1.5 run-line to make it a -1 wager in Gerrit Cole’s last turn against the Blue Jays. Don’t blindly hit the -1 run line offered up at BetRivers! It pays more when you combine both bets. Give me a shout @MikeRose77 if clueless how to do it. It’s a crying shame the Yankee bats failed to show against what had been a recently struggling Alex Manoah because BetRivers Sportsbook’s current favorite to win the AL Cy Young (+300) needed some help in what turned out to be his poorest showing of this season. While he didn’t surrender a single run and only gave up four hits, he only struck out four and failed to pitch through the sixth by way of averaging 16.9 pitches per inning – a season high.

I think more treacherous waters lie ahead for the right-hander with the Rangers feeling themselves right now. This will be his first career start at Globe Life Field where Texas has won eight of its 12 played games. On top of that, Adolis Garcia and his mates have demolished the 4-seamer, slider, and curve to some of the best run values I’ve seen to this point of the season. On top of that, Texas owns the No. 10 ranked walk rate in the league (9.8%). While I’m not sure I buy into what Andrew Heaney has done to this point in going 2-1 with a 4.34 ERA and nearly identical 4.35 FIP, the Yankees’ bats have really cooled off since mid-April (3.3 RPG). This is a statement series for the ‘Gers who know full well nobody is taking them as serious contenders!

BET THE RANGERS

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