The PGA Tour is back to the mainland this week after two weeks in Hawaii, as players will head to Southern California for The American Express. Unlike last week, where very few top players were in the field, this week we have five of the world’s top 10 ranked players expected to compete. World No. 4 Jon Rahm is listed as the favorite at odds of +550 at BetRivers and he is followed by Patrick Cantlay at +1000 and Scottie Scheffler at +1100. Let’s look at The American Express picks.
Venue: The American Express is played over three courses, PGA West, La Quinta Country club and PGA West. Those who make the 54-hole cut will play PGA West for the final round.
Last Year: Hudson Swafford won this event a year ago, as he shot a final round 64 to win by two shots over Tom Hoge. It was the second time in five years that Swafford won this event. Brian Harman, Lanto Griffin and Lee Hodges tied for third.
TV Coverage: Golf Channel
The American Express Odds
Rahm, Jon +550
Cantlay, Patrick +1000
Scheffler, Scottie +1100
Finau, Tony +1200
Zalatoris, Will +1600
Young, Cameron +2200
Sungjae Im +2200
Schauffele, Xander +2200
Tom Kim +2200
Harman, Brian +2800
Burns, Sam +3300
Si Woo Kim +4000
Hoge, Tom +4500
Davis, Cameron +4500
Montgomery, Taylor +4500
Theegala, Sahith +5000
Wise, Aaron +5000
Putnam, Andrew +6000
Kyoung-Hoon Lee +6600
Pendrith, Taylor +6600
Hadwin, Adam +6600
Poston, J.T. +7000
Day, Jason +8000
Fowler, Rickie +8000
Dahmen, Joel +8000
Clark, Wyndham +8000
Kirk, Chris +8000
Rodgers, Patrick +9000
Rose, Justin +9000
McCarthy, Denny +9000
Todd, Brendon +9000
Mitchell, Keith +9000
All other players are listed with odds of +10000 or more
Favorite
Jon Rahm +550
You know that I don’t bet golf favorites very often and I am sure not taking Rahm at odds this low, but it should be noted that Rahm did win a couple of weeks ago as the favorite. The field this week is definitely strong and while Rahm is capable of winning anytime he tees it up, I just can’t take him at odds this low.
Value Picks
Tony Finau +1200
There was a time when I wouldn’t take Finau to win a golf tournament, but he is now playable since he got past his struggles in final rounds last year. He has won three of his past seven starts overall. He has two Top 15 finishes in this event in the last three years.
Tom Kim +2200
Have oddsmakers overreacted to Kim missing the cut last week? It was just a week ago that Kim was listed as the betting favorite and now he is listed at odds of 22-1. Before the missed cut, Kim was dominating a number of key golf statistics. Why can’t he get right back on track this week? I think he has value at these odds.
Cameron Young +2200
It is only a matter of time before Young gets his first win. He had five runner-up finishes and two third-place finishes last year. He is fifth in Shots Gained: Off the Tee in his last 24 rounds. He was in position to challenge in this event a year ago, as he was just three shots off the lead entering the final round but then he imploded, shooting a 77. I expect him to contend this week and we get golf betting odds of 22-1.
Cam Davis +4500
Davis has played well in this event in the past with three finishes in the Top 30 including a tie for 3rd in 2021. He ranks in the top 25 in a number of key golf statistics in his past 24 rounds. He also ranks highly in important putting categories for this event. I will take a flyer on him at nice odds.
Adam Hadwin +6600
We have already seen a couple of Canadians win this season in Mackenzie Hughes and Adam Svensson? Why not Hadwin winning this week? He was excellent in this event from 2016-19 when he finished T-6th, 2nd, T-3rd, and T-2nd. I will take a flyer on him at big odds.
Joel Dahmen +8000
I’ll throw one big bomb in here and go with Dahmen. He finished last year with three straight Top 10 finishes. In his last 24 rounds he leads in total strokes gained. He is definitely worth a longshot try at big odds for this week.
Check out the latest American Express odds at BetRivers.
