The American Express Picks

The PGA Tour is back to the mainland this week after two weeks in Hawaii, as players will head to Southern California for The American Express. Unlike last week, where very few top players were in the field, this week we have five of the world’s top 10 ranked players expected to compete. World No. 4 Jon Rahm is listed as the favorite at odds of +550 at BetRivers and he is followed by Patrick Cantlay at +1000 and Scottie Scheffler at +1100. Let’s look at The American Express picks.

Venue: The American Express is played over three courses, PGA West, La Quinta Country club and PGA West. Those who make the 54-hole cut will play PGA West for the final round.

Last Year: Hudson Swafford won this event a year ago, as he shot a final round 64 to win by two shots over Tom Hoge. It was the second time in five years that Swafford won this event. Brian Harman, Lanto Griffin and Lee Hodges tied for third.

TV Coverage: Golf Channel

The American Express Odds

Rahm, Jon +550

Cantlay, Patrick +1000

Scheffler, Scottie +1100

Finau, Tony +1200

Zalatoris, Will +1600

Young, Cameron +2200

Sungjae Im +2200

Schauffele, Xander +2200

Tom Kim +2200

Harman, Brian +2800

Burns, Sam +3300

Si Woo Kim +4000

Hoge, Tom +4500

Davis, Cameron +4500

Montgomery, Taylor +4500

Theegala, Sahith +5000

Wise, Aaron +5000

Putnam, Andrew +6000

Kyoung-Hoon Lee +6600

Pendrith, Taylor +6600

Hadwin, Adam +6600

Poston, J.T. +7000

Day, Jason +8000

Fowler, Rickie +8000

Dahmen, Joel +8000

Clark, Wyndham +8000

Kirk, Chris +8000

Rodgers, Patrick +9000

Rose, Justin +9000

McCarthy, Denny +9000

Todd, Brendon +9000

Mitchell, Keith +9000

All other players are listed with odds of +10000 or more

Favorite

Jon Rahm +550

You know that I don’t bet golf favorites very often and I am sure not taking Rahm at odds this low, but it should be noted that Rahm did win a couple of weeks ago as the favorite. The field this week is definitely strong and while Rahm is capable of winning anytime he tees it up, I just can’t take him at odds this low.

Value Picks

Tony Finau +1200

There was a time when I wouldn’t take Finau to win a golf tournament, but he is now playable since he got past his struggles in final rounds last year. He has won three of his past seven starts overall. He has two Top 15 finishes in this event in the last three years.

Tom Kim +2200

Have oddsmakers overreacted to Kim missing the cut last week? It was just a week ago that Kim was listed as the betting favorite and now he is listed at odds of 22-1. Before the missed cut, Kim was dominating a number of key golf statistics. Why can’t he get right back on track this week? I think he has value at these odds.

Cameron Young +2200

It is only a matter of time before Young gets his first win. He had five runner-up finishes and two third-place finishes last year. He is fifth in Shots Gained: Off the Tee in his last 24 rounds. He was in position to challenge in this event a year ago, as he was just three shots off the lead entering the final round but then he imploded, shooting a 77. I expect him to contend this week and we get golf betting odds of 22-1.

Cam Davis +4500

Davis has played well in this event in the past with three finishes in the Top 30 including a tie for 3^rd in 2021. He ranks in the top 25 in a number of key golf statistics in his past 24 rounds. He also ranks highly in important putting categories for this event. I will take a flyer on him at nice odds.

Adam Hadwin +6600

We have already seen a couple of Canadians win this season in Mackenzie Hughes and Adam Svensson? Why not Hadwin winning this week? He was excellent in this event from 2016-19 when he finished T-6th, 2nd, T-3rd, and T-2^nd. I will take a flyer on him at big odds.

Joel Dahmen +8000

I’ll throw one big bomb in here and go with Dahmen. He finished last year with three straight Top 10 finishes. In his last 24 rounds he leads in total strokes gained. He is definitely worth a longshot try at big odds for this week.

Check out the latest American Express odds at BetRivers.