The Cleveland Browns prevented us from pulling off another broom job in Week 18 ultimately halting the streak at three straight weeks. Thanks for nothing Deshaun Watson! We did however cash our other two positions at PointsBet Sportsbook to limit the damage. Skylar Thompson did enough to help lead the Miami Dolphins into the playoffs – though it really didn’t amount to much. Rounding out the winning action was the Detroit Lions who ultimately didn’t end up needing any points after going into Lambeau Field and spoiling the Green Bay Packers playoff plans. Here’s to hoping our success betting teaser legs carries over into Wild-Card Weekend!
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San Francisco 49ers -2.5 -375
The Seahawks and 49ers crossed paths two times in the regular season and the former seemingly had no clue how to keep it competitive against the latter. Back in Week 2, San Francisco easily cruised to the 27-7 win and cover as 8.5-point favorites in the game Jimmy Garoppolo was thrust into action due to Trey Lance breaking his ankle in the first quarter. They’d go on to outgain Seattle 373-216 and own a near 17 minute time of possession advantage after rushing the ball 45 times for 189 yards. It was more of the same in the week 15 rematch with Christian McCaffrey turning his 26 carries into 108 yards and a touchdown. San Francisco averaged 6.2 yards per play and once again won the time of possession battle.
Seattle simply can’t defend the run evidenced by it getting gouged for over 150 yards per game (No. 30) to rank No. 25 in rush DVOA. They’re going to get a heaping load of it in this third go-round, and I’m willing to eat the extra chalk and bet on Uchenna Nwosu and co. being unable to contend with it. At this price point, the implied probability states the 49ers have a 78.9 percent chance of winning by a field goal. Due to the results of the prior two meetings paired with Seattle’s inability to contain the run, I have it closer to 95 percent! With Kyle Shanahan always playing it close to the vest in the playoffs, I feel much comfortable about backing the Niners at this price point just in case Mother Nature wreaks havoc with the playing field.
The betting line for this third go-round between the division rival Dolphins and Bills has fallen two points in the last 24 hours due to rumors of Tua Tagovailoa successfully making it through concussion protocol. He’s said to be returning to the practice field on Wednesday. That’s great. I want to see him under center in the playoffs since he’ll give Miami a better shot to win. That being said, he’s not the only one carrying an injury concern heading into this win or go home matchup against the team of destiny otherwise known as the Buffalo Bills.
Tyreek Hill has been nursing an ankle injury for what feels like a month now. He was visually frustrated in last week’s ugly win over the Jets to have not been able to play a bigger role in the game’s final outcome. On top of that, Raheem Mostert broke his thumb and is expected to miss moving all the RB1 work to Jeff Wilson Jr. Each player had huge impacts in the week 15 rematch with the Bills and their absences or limited outputs would be felt dramatically. There’s even more walking wounded with Terron Armstead still listed as questionable and Jaylen Waddle now battling an ankle injury. Miami is simply just too bruised and battered to put a scare in the Bills at this juncture of the season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8.5 -300
It pains me to do this knowing full well I’m putting my trust in Todd Bowles, but I’m taking 8+ points with “The GOAT” every passing week and twice in the playoffs! I get that Tampa Bay has been a money burner all season long in going 8-9 SU and a wretched 4-12-1 against the closing NFL odds. That being said, it seems like the team has flipped the proverbial switch in recent weeks and it’ll enter this tilt extremely confident knowing full well it handled the Cowboys with ease way back in its season opener.
Granted, Dak Prescott was knocked out of that game early on, but has anyone been impressed with the Cowboys overall body of work over the last month? I certainly haven’t! Save for the 40-34 barnburner win and cover in overtime against the Philadelphia Eagles in a game they matched up against Gardner Minshew instead of Jalen Hurts, the Cowboys lost in overtime at Jacksonville in a game they pissed away a 27-10 third quarter lead, had issues with the Josh Dobbs-led Tennessee Titans before putting the game out of reach in the fourth quarter, and then got their salad tossed last week by the division rival Commanders in a game the starters played deep into the fourth quarter. I have no clue why Dallas is favored to win this game but I’ll take the extra cheddar anyway!
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