UFC Odds – UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2

By Phil Simon

The UFC invades the Big Apple when bitter rivals Colby Covington and Kamaru Usman square off in a welterweight championship bout with the rematch from their epic fight highlighting the ticket at UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 from Madison Square Garden. Usman looks to defend his title for the fifth time in this rematch with Covington looking for a different outcome. With the first fight nearly even after four rounds, Usman scored a fifth-round TKO to secure the victory in his first title defense.

Usman (19-1) enters UFC 268 having won 18 straight fights and is a perfect 14-0 inside the octagon. He successfully defended his title for a fourth time with a knockout of Jorge Masvidal in April. And the Nigerian Nightmare is positioned as a -315 favorite on the odds board. Covington (16-2) bounced back from his loss to Usman with a fifth-round TKO of Tyron Woodley last September. Covington is listed as a +238 underdog.

The co-main event is a strawweight title rematch between Rose Namajunas (11-4) and Zhang Weili (21-2). Namajunas defends her belt for the first time against the opponent she took it from back in April. “Thug Rose” ended that fight just over a minute in with a vicious kick to the head. Zhang had won 21 consecutive fights but saw that streak end in a hurry. And while this is a rematch from a fight just a few months ago it almost feels like a new bout since we didn’t see much of the fighters the first time. Namajunas ended the festivities after just 78 seconds.

A lightweight battle between Michael Chandler (22-6) and Justin Gaethje (22-3) will determine which fighter is the top contender in the class. Both recently fought for the title with Gaethje coming up short against Khabib Nurmagomedov last October while Chandler was stopped in the second round by Charles Oliveira in a duel for the vacant lightweight strap in May.

We’re sure to see plenty of action inside the octagon and there will be more action at the betting window with 14 fights making up the UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 ticket on Saturday, November 6. The early prelims start at 6 p.m. ET with the four-fight prelims getting underway at 8 p.m. ET. The five-fight main card starts at 10 p.m. ET. All fights can be seen on ESPN and ESPN+ pay-per-view.

UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington Odds

Main Card
Colby Covington +238 vs. Kamaru Usman -315
o2.5 -215 / u2.5 +168

Weili Zhang -120 vs. Rose Namajunas -110
o 4.5-125 / u4.5 -105

Michael Chandler +176 vs. Justin Gaethje -225
o1.5 -130 / u1.5 +100

Billy Quarantillo +161 vs. Shane Burgos -205
o2.5 -135 / u2.5 +105

Frankie Edgar +146 vs. Marlon Vera -185
o2.5 -175 / u2.5 +139

Prelims
Andreas Michailidis +197 vs. Alex Pereira -255
o1.5 -155 / u1.5 +124

Al Iaquinta +143 vs. Bobby Green -180
o2.5 -315 / u2.5 +238

Chris Curtis +261 vs. Phil Hawes -350
o2.5 +105 / u2.5 -135

Nassourdine Imavov -120 vs. Edmen Shahbazyan -110
o2.5 -105 / u2.5 -125

Early Prelims
Jordan Williams +292 vs. Ian Garry -400
o1.5 -105 / u1.5 -125

Gian Villante -135 vs. Chris Barnett +105
o1.5 -225 / u1.5 +176

John Allan +273 vs. Dustin Jacoby -370
o2.5 +100 / u2.5 -130

Bruno Souza +248 vs. Melsik Baghdasaryan -330
o2.5 -150 / u2.5 +120

Ode Osbourne -180 vs. CJ Vergara +143
o2.5 +100 / u2.5 -130

Colby Covington (+238) vs. Kamaru Usman (-315)

If this fight is anything like the first encounter viewers will get their money’s worth on this one alone. And considering how tightly-contested that bout was it’s a little surprising to see the odds where they are. Digging a little gives us a clearer understanding. Covington has just one fight since that slugfest in December 2019, though it was impressive with a fifth-round stoppage of Woodley. Covington is a scrapper but his strength is wrestling. He got away from that in the first meeting and instead got into a punching match. Meanwhile, Usman has seemingly gotten better and stronger. A change in training camps prior to his bout with Gilbert Burns in February has turned Usman into more of a beast. He rattled Burns with a third-round KO and dimmed the lights on Masvidal just two months later with a second-round KO. The champ has won three of his last four fights by KO/TKO. Couple his newfound ability to throw land damaging strikes along with a strong wrestling game and it doesn’t look like Usman is ready to lose anytime soon. Covington can take a punch, he just can’t take a lot of them, and that’s what he’s going to get.

UFC Prediction: Kamaru Usman / (T)KO 4th Round