The 2023-24 NFL betting season comes to a close on Super Bowl Sunday when Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs take on Christian McCaffrey and the San Francisco 49ers in LVIII. I won’t bore you with the backdrop storylines surrounding this epic tilt. Head over to ESPN or each teams respective sites at NFL.com to take it all in. My lone concern here is cashing a Super Bowl LVIII Same Game Parlay in at Caesars Sportsbook, so let’s jump into the blood and guts of the matchup and see if we can do exactly just that – SLAM YOUR MAN!!
Bet on the NFL Playoffs at Caesars Sportsbook
Linemakers initially opened Super bowl betting action up with the 49ers lined 2.5-point favorites and the O/U set at 47.5. With Kansas City taking in 80+ percent of the bets and 60+ percent of the money, the number to beat initially moved down to +1 but has since moved back up to +2 with San Francisco getting some love closer to kickoff. Though the over has hogged 71 percent of the action and 57 percent of the handle, Caesars has been remiss to move the number to beat off the opener. Some 48s have however started to pop up on the betting board. This is a rematch of Super Bowl LIV which saw the 49ers piss away a 20-10 fourth quarter lead and the Chiefs take advantage by rattling off 21 unanswered fourth quarter points to log the 31-20 win and cover much to the chagrin of Niners backers that took the points. The 51 combined points came up just short of exceeding the closing 52.5-point total.
Just because this is the biggest game of the season, it doesn’t mean I will stray from attacking the weaknesses of both teams. While funny things have happened on this grand stage in year’s past, this matchup comes off as pretty cut and dry to me. The San Francisco 49ers – unlike the Baltimore Ravens – will look to ram the ball down the throat of a Chiefs defense that’s had all kinds of issues preventing opposing running games from teeing off whenever they so please. Kansas City serves up 113+ rushing yards per game (#18) to go along with a healthy 4.5 yards per carry (#25). If San Francisco runs the ball eight times with its running backs and wide receivers like the Ravens did in the AFC title game, NFL bettors will know something is rotten in Denmark if they don’t already! Christian McCaffrey is in line for a ton of work which has me targeting the over of his rushing yards prop.
As for Kansas City, I fully expect the Chiefs to attack the weak link of San Francisco’s defense which comes in stopping the pass. The Niners might only serve up 214+ yards per game through the air (#14), but they gave up a number of big tallies throughout the regular season and playoffs. They are susceptible! One only has to check out the box scores against the Rams, Vikings, Bengals, Ravens, Packers, and Lions for evidence of such. With that, I’ll be looking at Kansas City pass catchers to make some noise in this one with Travis Kelce high up on the priority list.
Though this is a matchup of two of the better red zone scoring defenses in the league, I got a feeling points find a way to hit the board in the rematch. In the regular season, Steve Spagnuolo’s troops rated out with the No. 8 ranked red zone scoring D that only allowed a touchdown just over 50 percent of the time. Over its last three games, that percentage has shot up to 60.0! San Francisco was worse in the regular season clocking in at No. 14 with a 54.7 percent success rate. However, Steve Wilks’ D had all kinds of issues keeping touchdowns off the board in the playoffs allowing Green Bay and Detroit to convert at a gross 66.7 percent clip. While there might not be a ton of play in the red zone in this one, I expect to see efficient offense run once there is and for both teams to score more touchdowns than field goals.
As for the side in this one, I just don’t foresee San Francisco being able to flip the script and prevent Kansas City from winning back-to-back championships. I get that Brock Purdy put forth an unreal season earning a Pro Bowl invite after throwing for 4,280 yards and 31:11 TD/INT ratio. Mr. Irrelevant the starting QB1 in a Super Bowl is also a great story. However, Patrick Mahomes is simply just cut from a different cloth. On top of that, he and his teammates just always seem to get all the calls. Then there’s the whole Taylor Swift thing with Kelce. It pains me to say, but Kansas City squeaks out another one which sees it hoisting the Lombardi Trophy for the third time in the last five years.
Christian McCaffrey 100+ Rushing Yards
Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown