Super Bowl LVIII Quarterback Prop Picks

By Mike Rose

Super Bowl LVIII betting is set to go down this Sunday! A plethora of betting options have been made available for NFL bettors to sink their teeth into over at Caesars Sportsbook, and I’m here to break down all the position groups. Hopefully these recommendations add to the bottom line! We’ll kick things off with the quarterbacks and boy do we have a fantastic matchup in store for us with Patrick Mahomes set to square off against Brock Purdy; otherwise known as ‘Mr. Irrelevant’. Without further ado, here’s what I got going with my Super Bowl LVIII Quarterback Prop Picks. Fingers crossed they make LVIII that much more enjoyable – SLAM YOUR MAN!!


Bet Super Bowl LVIII QB Props at Caesars Sportsbook


Patrick Mahomes Over 261.5 Passing Yards -115


I recommended hitting the over of Patrick Mahomes passing yards prop in last year’s big game. He only managed 182 passing yards by way of completing 21-of-27 passes for 3 TD in a game that saw 73 points dent the scoreboard. I was left crying in my beer. This time around however, Super Bowl prop bettors are getting a discount with the Chiefs QB1’s passing yards prop all the way down to 261.5. While warranted considering he’s only exceeded this impost once in his last five starts and did so by half a yard, I foresee Kansas City forced to play catchup on a number of occasions as easy a time the 49ers rushing attack will have carving its porous rush defense apart. His ability to do so will ultimately depend on his wide receivers with San Fran’s linebackers giving special extra attention to Travis Kelce in the middle of the field. In Rashee Rice and Co. I trust against this beatable 49ers pass defense that while improved since Week 15 just allowed Jared Goff and Jordan Love to churn out eye-opening performances against it.


Patrick Mahomes Under 26.5 Rushing Yards -120


With Mahomes entering last year’s Super Bowl with what I figured to be a banged up ankle injury suffered earlier in the playoffs, I confidently hit the under of his 20.5 rushing yards prop and went into the game thinking it was easy money. So what did the Chiefs future Hall of Fame quarterback do? Naturally, he rushed for 44 yards and went over his prop on one run after scampering for 26 yards early in the game. Per ‘The Edge’ at the the33rdTeam, the San Francisco 49ers opposed the fifth most QB rush attempts in the league and only surrendered 3.8 yards per carry. Through 19 played games, Mahomes tucked it and ran an average of 4.3 times per game and averaged 24.4 yards per game. Going solely by that breakdown, we have value in this offering at Caesars should he play to seasonal outputs. Linemakers are charging a tax on the over boosting his target 6-yards and climbing from last year’s big game. I’ll fade that noise and bank on DC Steve Wilks making sure his rushing prowess is accounted for every down.


Brock Purdy Over 3.5 Rushing Attempts +120


The Kansas City Chiefs enter Super Bowl LVIII betting owners of the best sack percentage in the league throwing opposing quarterbacks to the turf 8.6 percent of the time. The San Francisco 49ers offensive line rates amongst the NFL’s top-10 units in QB sack percentage allowed (6.1%). Even against the lesser pass rushes of the Lions and Packers in the playoffs, Brock Purdy had happy feet tucking the ball and running a total of 11 times. Though the sample size is small in spanning just two seasons, Purdy has shown a penchant for taking off in the second season with it all on the line. Through for career starts, he’s taken off a total of 18 times which amounts to 4.5 times per game. That output is likely to become amplified in this matchup running up against a Steve Spagnuolo-led defense that played man defense at the league’s eighth-highest rate resulting in the Chiefs serving up the third-most rush attempts to opposing field generals. That paired with the plus-money rate of return makes throwing a beer money flier at this prop more than worth the gamble!


Brock Purdy Longest Completion Over 36.5 Yards -115


The 49ers QB1 has cleared this impost in six of his last seven starts as well as 12 of 18 played games to date. That’s an 85.7 and 66.6 percent success rate folks! While he’ll be throwing into the teeth of the Chiefs defensive strength, I can’t help but think his premiere playmakers will put us in a position to cash this prop in due to their excelled abilities of making hay following the catch. All it takes is one mad dash to the end zone following a catch, and Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle all have the wherewithal to get the job done for us; quickly!


Bet Super Bowl LVIII Player Props at Caesars Sportsbook