Sunday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Ravens vs. Chargers

Sportsbook
By Mike Rose

How many players get concussed one week and still manage to play the following week? In this day and age of extra precautions to make sure teams have the best interests of the player held in the highest regard, you can probably count on one hand the amount of times that scenario played out. But it did last week after Alexander Mattison got knocked out against the Saints yet still managed to suit up to play Sunday night against the Broncos. Because of it, he ate into Ty Chandler’s workload and never allowed for last week’s Sunday Night Football same game parlay to get off the ground. Javonte Williams reverting back into a pumpkin didn’t help matters either. Let’s see if we can cash the Week 12 SNF SGP in at Caesars Sportsbook with the Ravens set to square off against the Chargers in a game I expect a plethora of points to hit the board - Primetime Unders Be Damned – SLAM YOUR MAN!!

 

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With the Chiefs spitting the bit and failing to hold serve last Monday night against the Eagles in the rematch of Super Bowl LVII – an outcome that would’ve played out in the big game had the zebras not stolen it away from Philly – the Baltimore Ravens enter Week 12 betting the rightful owners of the top seed in the AFC. On the flipside, the Los Angeles Chargers return home losers of two straight one-score defeats and bring up the rear of the AFC West standings sitting two-games under the breakeven point. Even so, the NFL betting market is backing the Bolts plus the points in a game they expect to see copious amounts of points hit the board with the total bumped up to 48 from the 44.5 opener. Will NFL bettors finally get to enjoy an exciting high-scoring game in primetime? Regression to the mean is well overdue with the under cashing in at 77 percent clip under the lights to date!

 

With Mark Andrews done for the remainder of the regular season at best after suffering a grizzly lower body injury that had the big tight end in noticeable pain, every single one of Baltimore’s pass catchers move up the target totem pole heading into Week 12 betting action. The unit couldn’t have asked for a better opponent to strut their stuff against than that of the Los Angeles Chargers and their league-worst pass D that’s offered up 290+ yards and 1.6 touchdowns (No. 24) per game. NFL bettors just sat and watched Brandon Staley’s troops allow Jordan Love to churn out the single best game of his career with 322 passing yards and 2 TD. His top-3 receiving options all went for 46+ receiving yards and both scores. This bodes extremely well for a struggling Zay Flowers to get back on track. Even with Andrews in the huddle, the rookie has been Lamar Jackson’s favorite evidenced by his team-high 23.9 percent target share. Doing most of his damage at short range with him the owner of an 8.7 yard average depth of target, I fully expect him to settle in as LJ’s safety valve and get peppered with targets. This should see him easily surpass his yardage and reception props.

 

With limited dependable pass catching options to get the ball to save for Keenan Allen, routinely getting the ball downfield is going to be a chore for Justin Herbert running up against the strength of Baltimore’s defense. His front wall has been pretty decent in keeping him upright with his hogs ranked No. 8 in sack percentage allowed, but we’ve seen that unit struggle at times against some of its stiffer competition; check the box score against the Jets in Week 9. With that, it will be of utmost importance that Austin Ekeler comes up with one of his biggest showings of the season so as to give his QB1 some passing windows to take advantage of downfield. The Ravens can be had on the ground where it allows 103+ yards per game (No. 13) and 4.3 yards per carry (No. 21). Since failing to surpass his rushing yards prop from weeks 6-9, No. 30 has cashed over tickets each of the last two weeks by averaging 65.5 yards per game. If Los Angeles is to make a game of this, it must get production from its running game and Ekeler is well overdue for one of his patented bust out performances.

 

While the value lies with the Chargers plus the points in this must-win spot, I don’t have the stomach or desire to back them ATS or on the moneyline at Caesars Sportsbook. Under Staley’s watch, this team has been nothing if not a money burner. I still can’t believe he’s still roaming the Bolts sideline. If you do decide to throw caution to the wind and back the home team, just know that you will go to bed extremely angry regardless of how you bet them. If you took the 3.5-points, LA will lose by four. If you go for the glory and hit them on the moneyline, Justin Tucker will hit the game winner at the gun – This is the way! We’ll bypass that nonsense and look for the Ravens to tally win No. 9 and return home to oppose the other corpse from Tinseltown.

 

Ravens -190 + Over 48

Zay Flowers Over 4.5 Receptions +120

Zay Flowers Over 100+ Receiving Yards +340

Austin Ekeler 75+ Rushing Yards +360

 

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