The Week 4 installment of Sunday Night Football looks to be a stinker on paper with the Kansas City Chiefs lined decided 9-point favorites over the New York Jets and the game total lined 41.5. Linemakers at BetRivers Sportsbook aren’t expecting fireworks in a game with such a large point spread and low O/U. That train of thought was bolstered immediately once total bettors clawed and scratched their way to the betting window to hammer the under of the 45 opener. The line move is tied for the biggest of the Week 4 betting slate – NFL bettors don’t expect points to hit the board in Cleveland either. As tempting it may be to whip up a same-game parlay involving the multitude of Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce props that surfaced mid-week, they pay me the big bucks to put together winning same game parlays so let’s see if we can bang one out for SNF – SLAM YOUR MAN!!
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It’s painful that we must continue enduring the Zach Wilson experience with such a talented roster surrounding the 2021 NFL Draft bust. I’m sure there are many that completely disagree with that statement by relishing the opportunity to blindly fade the Jets whenever No. 2 is nestled in under center. If not for a fluke comeback win against the Bills in Week 1 when forced to come in off the bench and hold the fort in relief of Aaron Rodgers, that mentality would’ve produced a perfect 3-0 record versus the closing NFL betting odds.
But here’s the thing, the Chiefs have proven time and time again to be an extreme money burner laying points on the road. While KC has come out the victor in eight of the last ten instances, it’s only managed a 4-6 ATS record with one of those triumphs coming back in Week 2 at Jacksonville. When asked to lay a touchdown or more last season, the Chiefs went a perfect 3-0 SU but just 1-2 ATS with the lone triumph coming against division rival Vegas in Week 18 when the Raiders had already packed it in. This won’t be for the faint of heart, but the first leg of the SNF same game parlay will be the Jets plus the points with the investment riding solely on New York’s defense balling out right from the opening kick.
I have zero faith Wilson finds a way to get the job done with his arm. In fact, I expect the former BYU product to be running for his life a majority of the game with Chris Jones and his mates owners of a 7.5 sack percentage (No. 14) that’s seen them average 2.7 sacks per game (No. 15). The Jets offensive line has been a major problem area through three games with it ranked No. 25 in sack percentage allowed (9.57%) that’s equated to 3.0 sacks per game (No. 21).
However, those outputs were accrued against two of the league’s nastiest pass rushes in the Bills and Cowboys. Though Kansas City rates out above average, the challenge still represents one of the easier that Mekhi Becton and his mates will have faced head on. Let’s take a flier on Wilson evading some of the pressure and turning up the field for some chunk gainers. He’s 1-1 versus his rushing yards prop to date, and it’s down to 9.5 after closing 10.5 and 13.5 the prior two games. The Chiefs have conceded 72 rushing yards and 3.4 yards per carry to opposing running backs. If Wilson can withstand the heat – and there will be heat – enough to get in the open field untouched, he should be able to surpass this target; possibly on a single carry!
Putting a bow on this ugly Sunday Night Football same game parlay will be the under of the Jets team total. It currently clocks in at 16.5. New York doesn’t stand a chance to win a shootout with the Chiefs nor does it even have the arsenal to even try due to the limitation running the offense. As such, I’m banking on Sauce Gardner and his mates making life a living hell for Patrick Mahomes and co. enough to turn this into a white knuckled defensive brawl similar to the one that played out the opening week when the defense forced four Buffalo turnovers and the special teams ended up winning the game in overtime. While New York’s defense will run out of steam at some point due to getting no relief from the offense much like the Denver Broncos stop unit did last season, it’s still early enough that I think they can shoulder the load and still give a max effort.
New York Jets (+9)
Zach Wilson Over 9.5 Rushing Yards
New York Jets Under 16.5 Points