A week removed from suffering a pair of bad beats at BetRivers Sportsbook, the football gods struck me down with the death hammer by dolling out a bagel in Week 14 total betting. The Jets and Bills combined for 24 points in the second and third quarters but only eight in the first and fourth to kill my over bet. The Broncos scored 28 points for the first time all season to kill my under bet. And to top it all off, Kyler Murray shredded his knee three plays into the Monday nighter to kill my over bet. Fun times! I’m a 100 percent fade when it comes to totals right now, so here’s three more to go the other way on in Week 15.
Bet Week 15 NFL Totals at BetRivers Sportsbook
PHILADELPHIA/CHICAGO OVER 48.5
So will the Eagles get caught looking ahead to next week’s colossal matchup with the Cowboys in Big D, or will 100 percent of their undivided attention go the way of the Chicago Bears? I’m expecting a bit of both, but it likely won’t be until Jalen Hurts and co. racked up a comfortable lead in the first half much like the Eagles have done for the entirety of the 2022 NFL betting season. The defense normally finds a way to put the clamps down over the second half, but I’m not sold on that occurring against a revitalized Justin Fields led Bears squad coming off a bye.
Chicago hasn’t been one to roll over and die in any of its prior 13 games, so I don’t envision that occurring in this one either. Though it hasn’t shown up in their record against the spread, it has when it comes to the total with late game bursts allowing for the over to cash in at a 9-4 clip. Weather also likely won’t be a factor either with the sun making a brisk 11 degree day feel a bit warmer than it truly is.
TENNESSEE/LOS ANGELES OVER 46.5
Had I known the Chargers would start playing like the Chargers we all envisioned at the outset of the season, I never would’ve laid the points with Tua and the Dolphins at BetRivers last Sunday night. Justin Herbert looked the best he has all season in ripping the Fins for 367 yards and a touchdown all the while completing 39 of his 51 attempted passes. The way to beat Miami is to attack its charitable secondary and that train of thought will again hold true this Sunday when Tennessee and its league-worst pass defense invades SoFi Stadium for one of the biggest matchups on the Week 15 slate.
The Titans are ranked No. 28 in pass DVOA per Football Outsiders. They give up over 283 passing yards per game to go along with a healthy 7.0 yards per pass attempt (No. 24). With Keenan Allen finally recovered from that hamstring injury and Mike Williams returning to the mix, Tennessee is going to have its hands full preventing LA from going off through the air. Though the Bolts did a solid job of limiting Miami on the ground last week, it’s still owners of the league’s No. 28 ranked run D that clocks in at No. 25 in rush DVOA. That plays right into the strength of the Titz advantage offensively with Derrick Henry set up for a monster game. This has high scoring back and forth shootout written all over it!
CINCINNATI/TAMPA BAY UNDER 44.5
It’s do or die time for the Buccaneers with the Panthers and Falcons attempting to chase them down in the division standings. Coming off that embarrassing Silicon Valley showing against the 49ers, I firmly expect Todd Bowles to have his defense ready to go to war against Joe Burrow and the Bengals. However, Cincy will very much so be up for this game as well knowing full well it can rattle off a sixth straight win and possibly overtake Baltimore in the AFC North standings dependent upon what goes down Saturday between the Ravens and Browns in Cleveland.
I give the edge to Cincinnati winning the game mostly due to the Bucs inability to get into a rhythm on the offensive side of the ball. I don’t foresee them being able to just turn it on out of nowhere against Lou Anarumo’s defense which has been playing some stupendous ball over the course of the win streak. Tampa can’t run the ball (No. 32), so it will have no choice but to look to the air where the Bengals are a bit more beatable (No. 20). That being said, the unit just held Patrick Mahomes to 223 yards and 1 TD and “The GOAT” isn’t nearly as locked in now as Mahomes was entering that tilt a few weeks back.