Not a terrible showing for the Week 1 NFL Market Movers Report with it producing a 3-2 ATS tally to add to the bottom line. The betting market correctly backed the Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, and the over in the Philadelphia/Detroit game which proved to be the shootout total bettors expected.
Losing line movers proved to be the New Orleans Saints who were lucky just to pull the outright in Atlanta, and the Denver Broncos who lost outright to the Seahawks much to the joy and elation of those booking the bets at BetRivers Sportsbook. Let’s throw that profit into play by seeing what the market has to say about the lay of the land heading into Week 3.
Note: Dramatic line moves in Cincinnati/Dallas due to Dak Prescott injury.
Detroit PK to -2 (2-point move)
The betting market looks to be more enamored with Dan Campbell’s Lions who kicked in the backdoor yet had no realistic shot of winning than a Washington squad that coughed up a commanding double-digit halftime lead but still battled back to not only win but cover. Hmmmmm.
This figures to be another entertaining game with the visitors possessing an electric pass-catching corps that should have its way with a porous Detroit secondary that allowed Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown to go HAM. I’m personally sitting this one out with the hopes of getting in live should the opportunity arise, but the full-game spread is likely to have investors chomping their nails throughout.
Indianapolis -4.5 to -3.5 (1 point move)
Jacksonville ended the Colts playoff hopes and dreams by ousting them at home as enormous home dogs in Week 18. Though Indy invades Duval County with an enormous chip on its shoulder, the betting market has wanted little to do with them in this grudge match; especially after playing to a tie in Houston.
Indianapolis has only garnered 38 percent of the bets and 15 percent of the money. Does last week’s tease in Washington really have us all sold on Trevor Lawrence and Co.? I think the Colts are far and away the best team in the AFC South – buyer beware!
Tampa Bay -4.5 to -3 (1.5 point move)
The Saints have swept the season rivalry from the Bucs each of the last three seasons; twice with “The GOAT” under center. Will the trend continue now with Dennis Allen overlooking the franchise?
The point spread has seen some reverse line movement with Tampa down to field goal favorites even though it’s received 51 percent of the bets and 55 percent of the money. I wasn’t overly impressed even though the Bucs cruised in Big D last week. Say what you will about squeezing out a win against the Falcons, New Orleans still managed to win the game and I think Atlanta is a grittier squad than NFL bettors are giving them credit for.
New England -1 to -2 (1 point move)
This is a spot you simply just lay the points and don’t ask questions. New England looked wretched in Miami last week, while the Steelers went into Cincinnati and pulled out an OT dub. Make it a priority to check the box score and the background info pertaining to what actually went down in the ‘Natti before running to the window to back the Steelers catching points.
PSA – Don’t bet against Bill Belichick coming off a loss. Just Don’t Do It!
Los Angeles Rams -13.5 to -10 (3.5 point move)
Are the Rams being faded by spiteful NFL bettors because of last week’s debacle, or do they truly think Atlanta is going to fly across the country and give the defending champs a game?
The market’s betting the game like it’s the latter with the Falcons taking in 60 percent of the bets and 76 percent of the money. Atlanta was feisty last week, but did what the franchise is notorious for – no thanks to bad calls from Arthur Smith - to hand the win over to their division rivals. Sean McVay is still dealing with major injury concerns that even the playing field.
Las Vegas -2.5 to -5.5 (3-point move)
Just like they did last week, the betting market is swarming towards the team playing the Arizona Cardinals. That team this time around happens to be the Las Vegas Raiders who NFL bettors hope thrash the Redbirds like the Chiefs did last week. Unlike KC who took in nearly 65 percent of the money, the Silver and Black are only garnering 53 percent for their home opener.
This has JQP written all over it! Public money is moving the line. Fade the news and buy the rumor - Zona went 8-1 SU away from the desert last season. Vegas looks much more attractive at that opener - False steam!
Buffalo -8.5 to -10 (1.5 point move)
Absolutely nothing from last week’s game against the Giants leads me to believe Tennessee has a fighting chance against a Bills outfit that looks to be on a war path. Think Josh Allen and his mates remember coughing up a win in Nissan Stadium last season by getting shutout in the fourth after denting the board for 31 points through three?
A healthy 73 percent of the bets and a whopping 91 percent of the money seem to think so!