We ended up splitting our QB props at PointsBet Sportsbook last week going 3-3 nailing all the main positions but coming up short with the peripherals. Deshaun Watson came nowhere close to exceeding his passing yards prop, but also came up three yards short of going over his rushing yards prop and didn’t score the anytime touchdown. I’m still cackling at whoever thought it a good idea setting Josh Allen’s passing yards prop in the low 230s. It got steamed into the 240s and he went on to throw for three spins! Dak Prescott needed an extra session to exceed his passing yards prop – thankfully - but still failed to exceed his pass attempts prop <– insert pissed off face emoji! Hopefully Week 16’s batch of QB props adds to the bottom line.
Bet Week 16 QB Props at PointsBet Sportsbook
Patrick Mahomes Under 300.5 Passing Yards -120
The Chiefs have partaken in a pair of crazy shootouts the last two weeks against the Denver Broncos and Houston Texans. Linemakers expect another to playout in Week 16 when Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks invade Arrowhead with the game total the highest of the Week 16 slate; tied with Green Bay/Miami. I’m not so sure. Seattle’s shown a penchant for getting the job done against the pass coming into this game ranked No. 17 overall while giving up just over 217.7 yards per game.
Where Seattle is penetrable however is on the ground where it’s hemorrhaged rushing yards every passing week. We’re talking over 160 yards per game which finds the Seahawks ranked No. 28 in rush DVOA. That means this could be the spot KC running backs are showcased which puts Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon firmly under the spotlight. It’s going to be cold and it’s going to be windy. The elements paired with opponent weakness have me willing to bet against Mahomes surpassing the 300-yard passing plateau in three straight.
Taylor Heinicke Over 189.5 Passing Yards -115
The success of the Commanders offense is predicated upon the running game’s ability to move the chains, dominate time of possession, and put points on the scoreboard. None of that seems attainable running up against the San Francisco 49ers top-ranked run defense that allows fewer than 75 yards per game and just 3.4 yards per carry (No. 1). The offense will be forced out of its comfort zone which means Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson won’t have a big say in how this game ultimately plays out; at least running the football.
Where Washington can and must succeed however is through the air. San Francisco’s lone weakness on that side of the ball comes in defending the pass (No. 14), and the Commandos most definitely have pass catchers at hand to take advantage. Grappling onto the seventh and final seed in the NFC with the Seahawks, Lions, and Packers hot on their trail, Washington must find a way to win this game. The only way it does is if Heinicke goes HAM and throws for 250+ yards with a couple touchdown passes. I believe!
Aaron Rodgers Over 250.5 Passing Yards -115
For all intents and purposes, Aaron Rodgers has been a disgrace for his player prop and fantasy backers all season long. However, this Week 16 tilt with the Dolphins could pay everyone back 10 fold with it now the fantasy playoffs. Miami’s porous secondary might just be exactly what the doctor ordered to get No. 12 off life support with it serving up over 246 passing yards per game to rank No. 26 in pass DVOA. The Dolphins have also served up an average of 2.3 passing touchdowns over their last three games.
Green Bay still has a mathematical shot to qualify for the playoffs regardless of sitting two games under .500 with three to play. In order to make that a reality, it must win out and get some help. It’s only a 3.5-point dog in a game that’s tied with SEA/KC for the highest O/U of the Week 16 slate. With Tua Tagovailoa likely to get his slinging the rock to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, the Packers will have no choice but to air it out. In a game of back and forth, I firmly expect Rodgers to shine and surpass the 300-yard plateau for the first time in 2022!