The Phoenix Suns picked a bad time to match their longest streak of the season. Dropping the last two games on the road to the Dallas Mavericks reduced the Western Conference semifinal to a best-of-three series with the Mavs having all the momentum on the floor and at the betting window. They covered the closing line in the previous two games and are a 7-2 NBA pick against the spread in their previous nine playoff games. In order to topple the league’s best team and the NBA Finals pick, the Mavs have to win a game on the road. And they haven’t won in Phoenix since late 2019 with their losing streak reaching seven games with a pair of setbacks to open the series. The Suns hit the NBA betting board at SugarHouse sportsbook as a 5.5-point favorite.
Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns
Date and Time: Tuesday, May 10, 2022, 10 p.m. ET
Location: Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ
Opening NBA Odds: Suns -5.5 O/U 213
Mavericks at Suns TV Coverage: TNT
The Mavs have been a resilient group this postseason which makes me think they have a chance to pull off the upset. They bounced back from a series opening loss to Utah to win the next two games playing without Luka Doncic. They did the same in this series getting overmatched in the first two contests only to rebound with a pair of payout home wins. Despite their success at home to even the series the Mavs are still a good-sized underdog catching 5.5-points on the opening line. Oddsmakers are giving the visitors a little respect with the opening number lower than what the Mavs faced in the first two games when they were getting 6.5- and 6-points. Dallas lost both games by a total of 27 points yet they are still solid NBA pick with seven payouts in their last nine games.
After losing only 18 games during the regular season and never more than two games consecutively, the Suns will look to avoid their longest skid of the season. And they have gotten the job done at home for the most part. Phoenix went 32-9 on its home floor this season and is 4-1 SU and ATS at Footprint Center in the playoffs. We don’t often see a short series in the later rounds of the playoffs and the Suns aren’t feeling a lot of pressure. “Last year was a learning experience for us. We went to six games last year with the Lakers, Clippers and Bucks and six games with New Orleans. We understand that it’s a series. It’s the playoffs for a reason,” Devin Booker said.
The Mavs have been solid defensively this postseason helping them win six of 10 games so far. They shut down a strong Utah team holding them to 100 points or less in four of six games. And they got back in this series by allowing an average of 97.5 points in the previous two games. That D needs to carry over into Game 5 since the Mavs yielded more than 120 in each of the first two games and lost both.
Doncic again spearheaded the offense in the 111-101 win, but he did so as more of a facilitator since the shots weren’t falling. Luka was just 9 of 25 overall and 1 of 10 from behind the arc for 26 points, but his damage came on his dishes. Eight of Doncic’s 11 assists came on three-pointers with pair on consecutive possessions late in the fourth. With their lead down to eight, Doncic kicked the ball out to Reggie Bullock first and found Jalen Brunson next. As a team the Mavs hit 20 of 44 triples with Dorian Finney-Smith knocking down 8 of 12 threes.
The Suns don’t rely on one player, but when Chris Paul is limited the club sure has a different look. They survived Paul’s injury absence during the season, but the playoffs are a different animal with the intensity kicked up several notches. And the Suns felt the loss of their leader on Sunday. Dealing with foul trouble and eventually getting disqualified, with some of the calls questionable, Paul wasn’t around much in the fourth quarter to do his thing.
Being the veteran that he is I doubt CP3 is going to get himself in a situation like that on Tuesday knowing how important he is to the Suns and their NBA odds pick. Paul played sparingly in the fourth quarter and was on the floor for only 23 minutes. He finished with five points. Without Paul leading the offense the Suns committed 17 turnovers. Returning home makes the Suns a solid play since they’ve been a strong NBA lines pick going 4-1 SU and ATS with a lot of wins over the Mavs over the years.
Bet Mavericks at Suns
Getting bounced early and not being around in the fourth quarter to help his team upset Paul. And a determined CP3 only makes the Suns stronger. Booker isn’t a point guard so his game suffered a tad when Paul was strapped with foul trouble on Sunday. Book still went off for 35 points and he’ll ready as Paul’s sidekick on Tuesday. And I don’t anticipate Finney-Smith going off like he did on Sunday which is why the home team is my NBA daily pick at SugarHouse.
NBA Score Prediction: Suns 115, Mavericks 102