Most Home Run Odds & Picks

By Mike Rose

Aaron Judge made a mockery of the home run title odds a season ago by launching an AL record 62 long balls into the cheap seats. He entered the 2022 MLB betting season 13-1 to be crowned the Home Run King. Back in the Bronx and looking to become the first player to win the title in back-to-back seasons since Jose Bautista pulled off the feat in 2010 and 2011, Judge finds himself the current 3-1 favorite to make history. Mind you his odds initially hit the board at 6-1, so the Yankees outfielder is getting a ton of support from the betting market. But I’m never one to bet a favorite on the futures odds at BetRivers Sportsbook with such a limited return on investment. As such, here are my favorite, underdog and longshot selections to hit the most home runs in 2023.


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btmk artbtmkr artcFavorite to Bet: Pete Alonso +1100


The Polar Bear hasn’t been a major factor in the home run title race since bursting onto the scene his rookie season when he hit 53 home runs and took home the Rookie of the Year Award. However, it’s been a steady uphill climb for the Mets first baseman since struggling through that injury ravaged COVID marred 2020 campaign. He hit 37 homers in 2021 and got his slugging percentage back over .500, and followed it up with 40 more last season to go along with a career-high 121 ribbies. Through his four seasons, Pete Alonso has finished 1st, 7th, 13th, and 3rd in the Home Run King rankings. New York once again figures to have an imposing batting lineup which will force opposing pitchers to feed him some decent looks with Jeff McNeil, Francisco Lindor, and Starling Marte clogging the base paths ahead of him. That will ultimately lead to a good chunk of his contact leaving the yard. At 11-1, Alonso is worth an investment being in the prime of his career.


Bet-Rivers-Banner-Sep-29-2022-03-57-25-53-PM-3Underdog to Bet: Eloy Jimenez +4000


One of these seasons, it’s all going to come together for Eloy Jimenez. Since making 504 plate appearances in his rookie season that saw him launch 31 homers and plate 79 RBI, the White Sox outfielder has logged a grand total of 784 plate appearances the last three seasons. The injury bug has prevented MLB bettors from seeing how big a stud this guy actually is. The hope is that he did some work in the offseason to improve his overall health so that he can actually remain on the playing field a majority of the upcoming season. Should that occur, the sky is the limit with the 26-year old clamoring to make his first All-Star appearance. With Jose Abreu no longer on the roster, Chicago will need someone else to step up in his absence. While it can just as easily be Luis Robert (+20000) who also just so happens to be an injury prone superstar, my money is on Jimenez whose power seemingly goes unmatched when healthy.


Longshot to Bet: Ryan Mountcastle +20000


The Baltimore Orioles just churned out a winning record for the first time in five seasons. Much of the team’s success that saw it go 83-79 and put a league-best $2717 worth of baseball betting profit in its supporter’s pockets came from the up and coming offense that saw the O’s hit a home run every 31.75 at-bats (No. 15). For reference sake, the Yankees hit one every 21.35 but much of that had to do with Judge’s historical campaign. Ryan Mountcastle hit 22 of the team’s 171 home runs which equates to just under 13 percent of the overall output. I think he can do much better than that! The year prior, the Orioles first baseman hit 33 home runs and sported a .487 slugging percentage. For one reason or another, that output bottomed out to a career-low .423 in 2022. Now entering his third full season and firmly aware of what it takes to put forth an optimum effort for a full 162-game schedule, a special season looks to be in store for the 26-year old. Hopefully it occurs in 2023 and we can cash this lottery ticket in!


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