If your NFL wager consists of a parlay you know the challenges with winning. Multiple bets on a single ticket just increase the odds for the house to take your bet. Welp, my same-game parlays have been a boost for BetRivers sportsbook since I’ve yet to win and last week was an epic disaster. Let me put it to you this way: if you bet the opposite of my four same-game parlay picks from the Monday Night Football clash between the Chargers and Jets you would’ve won a nice chunk of change. My picks were worse than New York’s offense. That won’t deter me from trying again, though, with the Week 10 MNF matchup between the Denver Broncos and Buffalo Bills offering up a plethora of NFL betting picks.
Given recent goings on some bettors might fancy the Broncos in this matchup. Behind a vastly improved defense the Broncos won two in a row ahead of last week’s bye, allowing a total of 26 points in those games and holding the Chiefs without a touchdown in their Week 8 victory. In fact the Broncos held each of their previous three opponents to less than 20 points cashing the UNDER on the NFL betting line each time. The Bills have already lost more games than they did all of last season falling to 5-4 with last week’s 24-18 setback to Cincinnati. They are 2-3 in their last five games averaging just over 20 points. And they’ve been an awful NFL pick against the spread going that entire stretch without a payout.
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Despite what they’ve done recently this is the same Broncos squad that allowed Miami to rack up 726 yards and 70 points in their Week 3 matchup, so forgive me if I’m not all on board since you really can’t get any worse than that mess up. Still, it is quite a turnaround with the defense playing a huge role in the winning streak. On the other hand Denver’s offense has been mediocre to bad all season and hasn’t turned a corner like the fellas on the other side of the football. We keep waiting for Russell Wilson to play like the version we saw in Seattle and that hasn’t happened, and it likely won’t the way things are going.
Buffalo hasn’t been as strong defensively this season as they’ve been in years past, but they are still a good group that can pester the opposition. And the Bills need to get out of this rut that’s seen them alternate wins and losses over the past six games. Stopping the run is key and the Bills will have success. And with Buffalo’s offense possessing the football, like I believe it will, the Broncos have fewer chances to score making the UNDER on Denver’s point total of 19.5 a NFL best bet.
The numbers have dipped for Buffalo’s offense as well, but not as sharply as the defense. Josh Allen is a handful with a special gift of making defenders look silly. It wasn’t that long ago that Buffalo looked like the best team in the league outscoring opponents 123-33 during a three-game winning streak. The group hasn’t reached that level since but it certainly has the pieces in place to do so. The Bills are due for a break out game and the NFL betting line that has them laying 7-points looks small to me.
Buffalo is one of the better home teams in the NFL and they have been since Allen became the starter. They are 4-1 on their home turf this season, though the last two wins were closer than most expected. Allen has never lost to the Broncos and shredded them for 359 passing yards and two touchdowns while adding a pair of scores on the ground in a 48-19 triumph when the teams last met during the 2020 campaign. He threw for 258 yards last week and averages 269.2 yards per game.
Denver’s defensive numbers were skewed by Miami’s outburst earlier this season and the Broncos are one of the worst units statistically because of it. They allow opponents to complete nearly 74 percent of their passes while conceding 7.6 yards per attempt. That’s good news for Allen and the Bills offense. Making a NFL wager on Allen going OVER his passing yards looks like a winning proposition.
Broncos UNDER 19.5 Points
Josh Allen OVER Total Passing Yards
Bills Winning Margin 13-18 Points
Bet $100 to Win $2000 On This MNF Same Game Parlay at BetRivers.