Monday, April 10 MLB Best Bets

By Mike Rose

A brand new week of baseball betting action opens up at BetRivers Sportsbook on Monday, and I’m here to get us started off on the right foot with a trio of MLB Best Bets! We’ve made some decent coin to start the year as MLB bettors and players get settled in. We’ve got some data on two starts for some pitchers to this point and will get in a solid groove once we get a handful. Let’s see if we can navigate the waters without killing the bankroll with this installment of investments - SLAM YOUR MAN!!


YTD: 3-2 ($61)


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Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins


Kenta Maeda was darn near brilliant in his first MLB start since August of 2021 after spinning five innings of three hit and 1 ER ball at Miami. Most impressive was the 9 K which means nine of the 15 outs registered with him on the bump came via the strikeout. However, it was the Marlins who currently rank No. 24 in OPS and their 74 strikeouts as a team rank out as the worst mark in all of baseball. His two starts against the White Sox back in 2021 saw him go 0-1 with a bloated 9.31 ERA and .316 BAA – not good! Making matters worse for him in this spot is the fact that he left the start against the Marlins early shaking his pitching hand. Upper management says he’s fine, but we’ll see.


I’ve already let it be known that I own shares of Dylan Cease winning the AL Cy Young (+850). Through two starts, I’m feeling pretty good about that investment with it already down to 7-1 at BetRivers. Through two starts against the Astros and Giants, the right-hander has allowed a total of three hits (1 HR) and 2 ER through 11.1 total innings. While the 4.0 BB/9 are bothersome, that’s what you pay for when it comes to backing Cease. He’s wild, but makes up for it by averaging 14.3 K/9! He dominated the Twins both at home and on the road through two starts last season in going 2-0 and not allowing a single run while racking up an impressive 15:4 K/BB ratio. He should be installed a short road favorite to win this matchup. Either way, you know what to do!





Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers


Happy Fade Andrew Heaney Day! We did so in his 2023 debut for the Rangers and laughed all the way back to the window after Baltimore raked him for seven hits (2 HR) and 7 ER through only 2.2 innings of work. While the effort wasn’t nearly as bad as the final stat line indicates, I’m going back for seconds here and hoping he continues to struggle executing his dominant slider to the point that it allows the weak-hitting Royals (No. 30 in OPS) to scratch out a few early runs and bank on their veteran starting pitcher and bullpen to see this one all the way through. Tough sell, I know…


While Zack Greinke is not the upper echelon starting pitcher he once was, he’s still a cagey vet that can surprise when given the chance. While 0-2 through his first two starts in his second season of his second go-round with the Royals, he’s more than held up his end of the bargain against two of the better offenses the league currently has to offer. He’s allowed 13 hits and 3 ER through 11.1 innings, but hasn’t given up a single long ball and owns an 8:2 K/BB ratio. He made one start against Texas last season and was brilliant in allowing four hits (1 HR) through six innings while procuring a 3:1 K/BB ratio to log the dub. He’ll be catching too attractive a payback not to take a shot knowing Salvador Perez and Co. could finally flex against Heaney.




Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants


Julio Urias is undoubtedly a dark horse contender for the NL Cy Young Award. He’s looked the part through two starts only allowing nine hits and 2 ER while racking up a perfect 12:0 K/BB ratio against the division rival D’backs and Rockies. He gets another gem matchup on Monday night in the series opener against a Giants team that’s struggled mightily against LHP to start the season in ranking dead last in OPS (.404). San Francisco has also been a casualty of the strikeout early on with it fanning a whopping 72 times – only the Marlins have gone down on strikes more! He also made minced meat of the Giants last season through five starts in going 4-1 with a 0.90 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, and .189 BAA.


So why the heck are we fading him then Mike? It’s simple really – Logan’s Webb! You don’t mess with Logan when he’s pitching in the comforts of Oracle Park where he’s 17-10 at lifetime with a 3.01 ERA and 217:61 K/BB ratio through 37 starts and 218 innings of work. Save for his rookie season in 2019, Webb hasn’t logged a losing record in his home park. He struggled in his first two starts on the road at the Yankees and White Sox, but I expect the slider to return to its dominant self back in his home digs. This will also be his first start under the lights, and his career ERA is a run and a half lower than when hurling under the sun. It won’t be fun having the bottle of Pepto at an arm’s reach all game long, but in the end Webb and the Giants will prevail and get a leg up in the series.




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