MLB Prop Betting Overview

Written by Mike Rose

Though the 2022 MLB betting season is in jeopardy of being delayed or not being played altogether due to players and team owners

 simply being unable to get on the same page of a number of sticking points, you can’t help but think the season will ultimately play out in some way, shape or form in the coming future. Once the “Boys of Summer” return to the playing fields, MLB bettors will be chomping at the bit to get their action down at regulated US sports books like DraftKings, FanDuel and Sugarhouse. So to get you in the know once that time arrives, we’re going to break down a number of different MLB prop types to play alongside the customary moneyline, run-line and total offerings offered up on a gamely basis. From runs being scored in the first inning to the number of outs a pitcher tallies or innings pitched in a given start, there are copious amount of player and team props that can be wagered upon every passing day. It’s time you familiarized yourself with some of these wager types, and that’s what this piece will attempt to do. While there are still plenty more markets to wager into than described, some of the more popular offerings are bantered about down below. It’s a good starting point. But before jumping head first into the MLB prop waters, just know that you need to eat, breathe and sleep baseball on a daily basis in order to be successful in this venture. In other words, you need to be plugged in. If not, your bankroll will experience a slow death. You’re either all-in or you’re out!

Will there be a Run Scored in the 1^st Inning?

The basis of this team prop is self-explanatory. Will a run be scored in the first inning? It doesn’t matter if it comes from the visiting or home team just so long as a run crosses the plate before six outs are accumulated in the opening inning. The moneyline odds on it occurring correlate directly with the type of pitchers toeing the bump for each respective team. If a pair of staff aces are squaring off against one another like Max Scherzer and Walker Buehler, “No” would likely be the heavy favorite with “Yes” offering up a plus-money return. If a couple of gas cans like Jake Arrieta and Mike Foltynewicz are pitted against one another, the “Yes” would likely be the favorite with the “No” returning more money back than invested. When attacking this form of prop betting, make it a point to see how the ball park plays, the lineup makeups and most importantly, the umpire calling the balls and strikes. You want umps with tight strike zones that have an affinity for balls being put in play because of it.

Total Hits, Runs and Errors for both Team

Another team prop that correlates directly with the batters, pitchers and umpires is the H-R-E prop bet. You know that box on every baseball telecast that relays the amount of hits, runs and errors attained by both teams throughout the game? Well, that’s the number you’d be betting into when attacking the hits + runs + errors prop markets. Even before entertaining the thought of betting this wager type, you must know how both teams stack up offensively. Do they put the ball in play at a high percentage clip? Are they a station to station type offense, or does the manager force the issue by stealing bases? How does the offense perform historically against the starting pitcher? Often overlooked is the play of the defense. Is the middle infield a bunch of butchers or does it offer up a valuable double play combination? And don’t forget to see how the bullpens rank out and who is available for said game. Often times, games with stud pitchers and low totals will play to low H-R-E results, while matchups that pit No. 4s and 5s against one another with high totals produce high H-R-E results. It doesn’t always play out like that though, so do your due diligence before locking in a bet.

Team Totals

This wager type has really gained in popularity in recent seasons. What it does is allow the MLB bettor to break the game down from a single team point of view. Say the Yankees have Gerrit Cole on the bump at home against a back end starter of the Baltimore Orioles. New York would likely be installed a gargantuan favorite with a total of 9-10 runs. You think the Bronx Bombers flex their muscles, but aren’t prepared to lay the heavy chalk on either the moneyline or run-line. A pivot would be to hit the over of the team total instead at heavily reduced juice and concentrate solely on Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton murdering the baseball to allow for New York to go over its suggested total. This example would likely bring with it a 5.5-6.5 run total and either six or seven runs would need to be scored to cash a ticket. You could also bet the Orioles under their team total, but that would likely cost more to win less with Cole throwing at them.

Will Player X Hit a Home Run

The NFL has first touchdown and anytime scorer props made available for NFL bettors to cash in on their favorite players executing plays that put points on the board. Some of the offerings payoff at huge moneyline odds, while others force an investor to lay juice due to the player being heavily involved in their respective team’s offense. Baseball’s version of that player prop is the home run prop. Each player has moneyline odds associated with them to launch a ball into the cheap seats every passing game. Players known for hitting the long ball will have shorter odds while lesser home run hitters will have huge rates of return attached to them. A player like Fernando Tatis Jr. will come in around +300 to hit a home run, while a player like Manuel Margot could clock in as high as 10-1! Like the NFL, you could bet on a player hitting two or three home runs in a single game. If they do it and you bet on it happening, you’d be paid off handsomely.

Strikeout Total

This is by far my favorite bet of all the player specific props. You can have your home runs. You can have your total bases. Gimme all the K totals! This prop bet deals solely with the amount of strikeouts a starting pitcher tallies over the course of his start. Nothing more. Nothing less. As such, you’re going to want to gravitate more towards starting pitchers that’ve shown a propensity to get opposing batters out via the strikeout with regularity as well as going deep into games. Now keep in mind, these types of pitchers will always carry bloated K totals with heavy juice attached to the over. I’d never recommend blindly tailing the over of every strikeout artist, but you would’ve made a pretty penny doing exactly just that backing Robbie Ray en route to him winning the AL Cy Young Award in 2021. The true key to pinpointing winners in the K prop market is finding pitcher’s with some filth to their stuff matched up against free-swinging offenses that go down on strikes at a high clip. For every Shohei Ohtani, Yu Darvish or Aaron Nola, there’s lesser known players like Dylan Cease, Tyler Mahle or Sandy Alcantara that dramatically outperformed their strikeout expectations in a majority of starts. Keep that in mind when betting into pitcher strikeout props in 2022!