Last Wednesday’s MLB Best Bets ended up 2-1 to turn a profit at PointsBet Sportsbook. The night started off with a ticket cash on the Tigers after Eduardo Rodriguez kept his scoreless streak intact by tossing seven innings of shutout ball at Cleveland while also racking up 8k. That aforementioned scoreless streak currently clocks in at 27 straight innings! The lone defeat was a tough one to swallow after the Blue Jays dropped a 2-1 decision to the Phillies after Jordan Romano blew the save in the ninth and Philly added another single tally in extras. Thankfully we closed the night out with a winning ticket on the Cubs who avoided the home sweep by way of crushing the Cardinals 10-4. Here’s to reeling in some more green with Wednesday’s edition of MLB Same Game Parlays – SLAM YOUR MAN!!
YTD: 65-63-5 (-$160)
LW: 11-9-2 ($135)
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Detroit Tigers
I’m going right back to the well with the Tigers in the concluder of this mini two-game set with the Buccos. Though some wind was just taken out of the team’s sails at home by Seattle, I’m not panicking. The Mariners are about to go on a run and are a team that will contend for the AL West pennant the remainder of the season. While Pittsburgh got out to a fantastic start to its 2023 MLB betting campaign, it’s been nothing short of brutal since the calendar turned to May. With just two wins to their credit in their last 12 played games, the Pirates are a tough sell these days – especially with Rich Hill on the bump!
Pittsburgh clocks in 4-4 in his eight made starts with the left-hander serving up 10.5 hits per nine innings while pitching to a 4.35 ERA and 5.02 FIP. Right-handed bats have ripped him for a .298 batting average and .920 OPS, and the Tigers routinely send 7-8 righties to the dish whenever running up against a southpaw. Eduardo Rodriguez is on a heater that I simply refuse to not be a part of right now regardless of the Pirates being a much better hitting team against LHP (No. 8). We’ll pay up to see if that plays in this matinee pitching matchup.
SAME GAME MLB PARLAY: TIGERS MONEYLINE + RODRIGUEZ OVER PITCHING OUTS
Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins
I backed the over of MacKenzie Gore’s K prop in his most recent turn against New York. The Mets forced him to throw 96 pitches through four innings for an average of 24.0 pitches per inning. After racking up a career-high 10 strikeouts against the Mets back on April 26, New York did some homework and came up with a better approach to deal with the second-year hurler. Gore would only end up with 3 K and issued two free passes. It proved to be his second shortest stint of the season. As such, I expect a more dominant outing in start No. 9. I’ve pinpointed something that could be an early-season trend that I’m all in on for this start.
At Nationals Park, Gore is averaging 1.67 K/BB and 21.0 pitches per inning. When toeing the visitor’s bump, Gore is averaging 3.44 K/BB and 18.2 pitches per inning. For one reason or another, he just seems to be more locked in when pitching in an opposing ball park. No team has taken fewer walks than Miami (6.9% walk rate). On the flipside, Edward Cabrera concedes 7.6 BB/9 and no that isn’t a typo. His main strength is racking up gaudy strikeout totals (12.5 K/9), but the Nats have been the toughest team in MLB to set down on strikes (18.6% K Rate). If the K isn’t there for him, Washington should exceed its team total – likely in the 3.5 to 4.5 range – with relative ease.
SAME GAME MLB PARLAY: GORE OVER K PROP + NATS OVER TEAM TOTAL
Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox
Though Marco Gonzales enters his eighth start undefeated at 3-0 and his 4.42 ERA is in line with his 4.40 FIP, nothing about the left-hander jumps off the page save for the fact that he’s only conceded a 25.8 percent hard contact rate (No. 76). That being said, the Red Sox offense is going to be an extremely tough challenge for him if the curve isn’t getting whiffs or finding the zone. His other two offerings – the 4-seamer and changeup – are two pitches Rafael Devers and co. have demolished per the stat heads over at Baseball Savant.
I think Boston takes the field for this one looking to avoid getting swept out of their own ball park. Should that be the case, I expect them to hang a crooked number. Whether that proves to be enough to get out of dodge with the win ultimately depends upon Brayan Bello getting the job done with his 4-seamer, sinker, and slider proving to be exceptional worm burners by ranking in the 92nd, 61st, and 90th percentiles respectively. He does however give up tons of hard contact (No. 182) and doesn’t tally a ton of called strikes + whiffs (No. 108). Even so, I expect the birthday boy to come out guns ablazed and put Boston in a position to take the series finale.
SAME GAME MLB PARLAY: RED SOX MONEYLINE + OVER TEAM TOTAL
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