The Kansas City Chiefs came a single win away from cashing a ninth straight over ticket for NFL bettors. A rough 3-4 SU start (2-5 ATS) is largely to blame for Andy Reid’s squad being unable to seal the deal. Still, the Chiefs went on to win 12 or more games for the fourth straight year and also secured AFC West bragging rights for the sixth straight time; an achievement that finds KC taking home 14 all-time division titles.
Patrick Mahomes has been at the helm for each of the last four, and he’ll once again be nestled in under center to lead one of the most exciting offense’s the league currently has to offer; with or without the Cheetah! He’s finished top-three in EPA each of the last four seasons, and will still likely match that feat with almost an entirely new wide receiver corps at his disposal. KC’s offense will be just fine.
What about the defense? It’s now without the “Honey Badger” coming off a season in which it ranked amongst the worst pass defenses in the game (No. 27), and got next to no pass rush up front evidenced by a bottom-five sack rate. Purdue EDGE rusher George Karlaftis was brought in via the draft to help rectify the situation, but I’m not certain he’ll be enough. On paper, The AFC West looks like it’ll be ultra-competitive and KC’s schedule rates out as one of if not the toughest of all 32 teams. Just look at those first seven games leading up to the Week 8 bye – there isn’t a cake walk in the bunch!
That being said, I know better than to doubt No. 15. Somehow, someway; he’ll find a way to lead KC to another division title that will likely see the Chiefs just barely surpass a reduced number to beat at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Bet the Kansas City Chiefs Season Wins Total at DraftKings Sportsbook
Kansas City Chiefs Season Wins Total: 10.5 Over -115
The Chiefs struggled mightily out of the chute against what was expected to be the ninth toughest slate of opponents per the folks over at Sharp Football Analysis. This year’s schedule ranks out as the hardest within the division as well as the league. Because of it, Kansas City’s win total is the lowest it’s been since the 2019 season when it went off the board at 10.5 and the team logged 12 regular season wins before going on to win the Super Bowl.
If not for some boneheaded play calling at the tail end of the first half of the AFC Championship Game, KC would’ve punched a ticket to the Super Bowl for the third straight season. That chip will undoubtedly remain on the team’s collective shoulder entering 2022-23.
Kansas City Chiefs Football Schedule
Week 1: Chiefs at Cardinals, Sunday, September 11, 4:25 p.m. ET
Week 2: Chargers at Chiefs, Thursday, September 15, 8:15 p.m. ET, PRIME
Week 3: Chiefs at Colts, Sunday, September 25, 1 p.m. ET
Week 4: Chiefs at Buccaneers, Sunday, October 2, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Week 5: Raiders at Chiefs, Monday, October 10, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
Week 6: Bills at Chiefs, Sunday, October 16, 4:25 p.m. ET
Week 7: Chiefs at 49ers, Sunday, October 23, 4:25 p.m. ET
Week 8: Bye Week
Week 9: Titans at Chiefs, Sunday, November 6, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Week 10: Jaguars at Chiefs, Sunday, November 13, 1 p.m. ET
Week 11: Chiefs at Chargers, Sunday, November 20, 4:25 p.m. ET
Week 12: Rams at Chiefs, Sunday, November 27, 4:25 p.m. ET
Week 13: Chiefs at Bengals, Sunday, December 4, 4:25 p.m. ET
Week 14: Chiefs at Broncos, Sunday, December 11, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Week 15: Chiefs at Texans, Sunday, December 18, 1 p.m. ET
Week 16: Seahawks at Chiefs, Saturday, December 24, 1 p.m. ET
Week 17: Broncos at Chiefs, Sunday, January 1, 1 p.m. ET
Week 18: Chiefs at Raiders, Sunday, January 8, 1 p.m. ET
Kansas City Chiefs Season Win Total Analysis
While the loss of Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins will undoubtedly sting, I think the Chiefs are better offensively than they were last season; especially from a depth perspective. Sure, “The Cheetah’s” ability to break a game wide open will be missed, but there’s some potential highlight reel type players still in the mix with Marquez Valdes-Scantling and JuJu Smith-Schuster now on the roster. Josh Gordon is still hanging on and supposedly looking good, while rookie Skyy Moore is out to make a name for himself. And don’t forget about the one and only Travis Kelce, who will turn 33 in early October. Once all the new faces become acclimated with one another, the Chiefs will march one of the more lethal offenses onto the gridiron per usual.
Call me crazy, but I think the insertion of Ronald Jones into the backfield could prove to be one of the best moves of the entire offseason. Talk about a dude that’s got something to prove! It not working with the “GOAT” doesn’t mean it won’t in a Mahomes-led attack. This kid could help win fantasy titles this season!
The defense and schedule do however leave some major cause for concern, especially the latter. DC Steve Spagnuolo will mold the stop unit into one that can be depended on to come up big when it matters most, just like it has under most of his watch. But that schedule yo! Even after taking on a murderer’s row up until the bye, it doesn’t get much better coming out of it either. Though only four of its final 10 opponents reached the postseason last year, the division rival Broncos are likely to be greatly improved, and four of their final six games will be played away from Arrowhead Stadium, with a pair coming in divisional play.
The chips certainly look to be stacked against the reigning division champs on paper, but they’re still -215 chalk to qualify for the playoffs and owners of the third shortest odds to win SB LVII at DK. As greatly improved the AFC West looks to be with each starting PTPers at the QB position, I think it’s still premature to fade the reigning champs. Mahomes is still in his prime and has been there. Nobody else save for Russell Wilson can say that within the division. That being said, he didn’t look too good in his age-33 season. Keep riding this team until it proves otherwise.
Kansas City Chiefs Season Win Total Prediction: Over 10.5