By Tom Wilkinson
The John Deere Classic just can’t seem to catch a break in terms of getting a strong field. The tournament had traditionally been scheduled the week before the Open Championship, but this year it is held two weeks before golf’s final major of the season. You would think that would make it so that more players would be entered this year, but unfortunately for the John Deere Classic, the PGA Tour scheduled a new event, the Genesis Scottish Open for next week and most players are choosing to prep for the Open by playing next week’s Scottish Open. It also doesn’t help that the new LIV Tour has an event in Portland this week. Webb Simpson is the highest ranked player in this week’s John Deere Classic at No. 58 in the latest World Golf Rankings.
Five of the last 10 winners of the John Deere Classic were first-time winners on the PGA Tour. Let’s look at John Deere Classic picks.
Venue: TPC Deere Run is a par 71 that measures 7,280 yards. It has seen some low scores, as Paul Goydos shot a 59 in 2010 and that same day Steve Stricker shot a 60. The course has a lot of elevation changes and there is a lot of risk-reward, but overall, the course plays relatively easy.
Last Year: Lucas Glover birdied five of the last seven holes last year to win by two shots over Ryan Moore and Kevin Na. Glover shot 19-under par to win for the first time in a decade.
TV Coverage: CBS & Golf Channel
John Deere Classic Odds
Webb Simpson +1200
Adam Hadwin +1800
Jason Day +2800
Sahith Theegala +2900
Denny McCarthy +3000
Maverick McNealy +3100
Brendon Todd +3300
Charles Howell +3400
Scott Stallings +3700
Adam Long +3700
Patrick Rodgers +3700
Nick Hardy +3700
Cameron Davis +4000
Cameron Champ +4200
J.T. Poston +4200
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +4200
Adam Svensson +4500
John Huh +4500
Kevin Streelman +4500
Lucas Glover +4500
Martin Laird +5000
Emiliano Grillo +5000
Dylan Frittelli +5000
C.T. Pan +5000
Chez Reavie +5000
Taylor Pendrith +5500
Adam Schenk +5500
Doug Ghim +5500
Anirban Lahiri +5500
Lanto Griffin +5500
Alex Smalley +5500
Steve Stricker +6000
Mark Hubbard +6500
David Lipsky +6500
J.J. Spaun +6500
Patton Kizzire +6500
Charley Hoffman +6500
Hank Lebioda +7000
Nate Lashley +8000
Chesson Hadley +8000
Lee Hodges +8000
Ryan Armour +8000
Kramer Hickok +8000
Ryan Moore +8000
Tyler Duncan +8000
Zach Johnson +8000
Chad Ramey +8000
James Hahn +8000
Nick Taylor +8000
Andrew Putnam +8000
Matthias Schwab +9500
Callum Tarren +9500
Michael Thompson +9500
Taylor Moore +9500
Brandt Snedeker +9500
Matt Wallace +9500
Hayden Buckley +9500
Rory Sabbatini +9500
Christopher Gotterup +9500
All other players are listed with odds of 100-1 or more
Favorite
Webb Simpson +1200
I shouldn’t have to say it any longer, as if you follow me on this pick’s column you know that golf favorites don’t win that often. You simply can’t bet the favorite in a golf tournament on a regular basis and make money. It isn’t any different this week, as Simpson is overvalued. He has not won an event since 2020 and he doesn’t have a top-10 finish this year. I am definitely not taking Simpson at odds this low.
Value Picks
Maverick McNealy +3100
McNealy is good on short courses and Deere Run definitely fits that category. McNealy finished second at Pebble Beach, he tied for 4th at Harbour Town and he tied for 20th at Colonial. The field this week is definitely nothing special and we know that the John Deere is a good tournament for players to get their first PGA Tour win.
Scott Stallings +3700
Stallings has played well in the past in this event with three finishes in the Top 20 in his last four starts. He seems to be going in the right direction with some solid scores on Thursdays in his last seven tourneys. This would seem to be a good spot for Stallings to contend.
John Huh +4500
Another player who is trending in the right direction is Huh who has gained stroked tee-to-green in his last three starts. He has been really good from short distances and he should get a lot of chances to make birdies this week. I think he has some value this week.
Kevin Streelman +4500
I am a little surprised the odds on Streelman are not lower. This field is weak, and Streelman can win. He has done well in this event in the past with three top-10 finishes and he won’t be overwhelmed by marquee players this week.
Steve Stricker +6000
We know that Stricker loves to play this event. He is actually skipping the U.S. Senior Open to play this event. Stricker is still playing well enough to win and on this course, he won’t face a ton of top competition. Why not take a shot on Stricker at big odds?
Patton Kizzire +6500
One thing we know about Kizzire is that when he gets into contention, he is a real threat to win. You don’t see Kizzire on leaderboards that often, but did you know that he has two PGA Tour wins? I think he can be in the mix this week and we get some attractive odds.
Check out the latest John Deere Classic odds at SugarHouse.
