Last Friday’s MLB Same Game Parlays came one James Paxton strikeout away from going 2-1 over at PointsBet Sportsbook. The night started off with a nice ticket cash on the Pirates moneyline + the under of Zac Gallen’s pitching outs prop. Oviedo shined while the D’backs ace put forth his worst showing of the season. I still can’t comprehend how the Yankees and Reds failed to dent the scoreboard with Clarke Schmidt squaring off against Ben Lively. We were lucky to hit the over of NY’s team total! While Boston cashed in as +130 San Diego dogs, The Big Maple failed to tally a punch out after registering five through four innings – tough loss there! Here’s to starting the weekend off right with Friday’s edition of parlay picks – SLAM YOUR MAN!!
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
I haven’t a care about who will toe the bump for the host Rays on Friday night when they welcome the Dodgers into the Trop for the series opener. This SGP has everything to do with fading Noah Syndergaard against an offense that will undoubtedly be the right-hander’s toughest test to date. Tampa Bay has been the nuts since the beginning of April and that remains the case with Randy Arozarena and co. knocking the cover off the ball to the tune of a league-best .847 OPS that’s led directly to nearly 6.0 runs per game.
Thor is in the midst of a positive regression which had been foreshadowed by his 4.44 FIP nearly a run and a half lower than his 5.88 ERA. Still, both outputs aren’t great and that’s something this Rays offense will take full advantage of with it deadly against Syndergaard’s most heavily used pitches in the sinker and changeup. This could go sideways if his cutter is on, but we’ll bet against that occurring as readily able Wander Franco and his mates will be at swiping bases to force the issue when clogging the base paths. Rays hang a crooked number and chase Thor early!
SAME GAME MLB PARLAY: RAYS OVER TEAM TOTAL + SYNDERGAARD UNDER PITCHING OUTS
Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles
The Grayson Rodriguez experiment hasn’t gone as planned. Unfortunately, the right-handed fireballer has been unable to harness his secondaries and that’s equated to an ugly 1.643 WHIP mostly due to allowing nearly 11.0 hits and serving up 3.9 walks per nine innings. Most bothersome is the fact that he’s been at his absolute worst in front of the hometown fans where he’s given up 27 hits (4 HR) and 15 ER with a horrendous 19:12 K/BB ratio through 18.1 innings over four starts. Making this an even trickier spot for the rookie is the fact that the Rangers have already seen his stuff once this season after getting to him for 2 ER through 5.0 innings in his season debut back on April 5. Still, he fanned five to exceed his 4.5 K prop.
He took a no-decision in that start but Baltimore would go on to lose the game against the baseball betting odds. With Texas now atop the AL West standings and the O’s making a run for the top spot in the AL East, Camden Yards is going to be electric which should have Rodriguez amped to churn out his best showing of the season. Jon Gray might be 4-1 with a 3.02 ERA but his FIP clocks in nearly two runs higher and he’s also had issues with walks (3.2/9). Baltimore ranks No. 4 in walk rate. Gray’s benefited from throwing against the inept offenses of the Mariners, A’s, and Rockies in his last three starts. Ryan Mountcastle and co. will prove to be a much different beast!
SAME GAME MLB PARLAY: ORIOLES MONEYLINE + GRAYSON RODRIGUEZ OVER K PROP
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Seattle Mariners
Two pitchers that’ve gotten out to remarkable starts to their respective 2023 campaigns will square off in the nightcap at T-Mobile Park when Mitch Keller and George Kirby play a little game of anything you can do I can do better. The former enters his 11th start 5-1 with a 2.44 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and .202 batting average against. The righty has allowed two or less earned runs each of the last six times he took to the bump, and has been flat-out nasty under the lights in conceding 19 hits and only 5 ER while racking up 28 K and issuing only five walks through 26.0 total innings. He gets a peach of a matchup versus a Seattle offense ranked 19th in OPS against righties that average just over 4.0 runs per game (No. 17).
As tough it will be for the Mariners to plate runs off Keller, it won’t be a walk in the park for the Buccos against Kirby either. Though the M’s flamethrower has been a bit more hittable in his home ball park, Pittsburgh’s offense has been slumping and enters this series having averaged 3.0 runs in its last five games. I’m interested to see how the Buccos deal with the heat Kirby is about to unleash upon them with a majority of the roster offering up negative run values against the pitch type per Baseball Savant. I expect both starting pitchers to flourish both early and late and wouldn’t be the least bit shocked if the final score of this showdown ended up 1-0.
SAME GAME MLB PARLAY: FULL GAME UNDER + KELLER OVER PITCHING OUTS + KIRBY OVER PITCHING OUTS