Last Friday’s MLB Best Bets ended up 1-1 over at PointsBet Sportsbook with the play on the Colorado Rockies cancelled due to the Phillies preventing Bailey Falter from throwing in Coors. The night started off with a tough loss on the over of MacKenzie Gore’s K prop versus the Mets who proved to be much tougher on his pitch count the second time opposing him. We got that unit back later in the night after the St. Louis Cardinals took the series opener from the Boston Red Sox as slight road underdogs per the closing MLB odds. Here’s to starting the weekend off right with Friday’s edition of MLB Same Game Parlays – SLAM YOUR MAN!!
YTD: 65-63-5 (-$160)
LW: 11-9-2 ($135)
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
This one won’t sit well with the masses as fantastic Zac Gallen has been to this point of the season, but I foresee the Buccos coming out hard in the series opener with it hell-bent on erasing the memory of the poor showing put forth in its last homestand. Andrew McCutchen and his mates got swept by the Toronto Blue Jays and followed it up with a series loss to the Colorado Rockies. Its healthy lead atop the NL Central is now in the distant past with it currently looking up at the Brew Crew in the standings.
While Johan Oviedo has been far from money in the bank evidenced by his 5.14 ERA and 1.643 WHIP, those stats have been inflated by a terrible 4.3 BB/9 average. Luckily for him, the D’backs rank out as one of the worst teams in the league at taking walks (No. 22). The righty is an extreme ground ball pitcher evidenced by inducing them over 53 percent of the time (No. 29), and his 96.1 average fastball velocity is one of the best in the game (No. 19). While Zona’s got some pretty decent fastball and slider hitters in its lineup with numerous batters churning out solid run values against those pitches types per Baseball Savant, this MLB same game parlay has everything to do with my belief Pittsburgh shows up in a big way Friday night.
SAME GAME MLB PARLAY: PIRATES MONEYLINE + GALLEN UNDER PITCHING OUTS
New York Yankees vs. Cincinnati Reds
I won’t be digging too deep into the analysis for this one. Clarke Schmidt is working on borrowed time right now with the righty 1-4 with an inflated 6.30 ERA and ghastly 1.650 WHIP. He’s serving up nearly 12 hits per nine innings with just short of two leaving the yard per start. He’s also issuing 3+ walks per nine. Carlos Rodon and Frankie Montas can’t return to the starting rotation soon enough.
Ben Lively will take to the bump for the Reds as a starter for the first time this MLB betting season in the opener. The reliever has been pretty solid thus far in allowing five hits and 1 ER while limiting opponents to a .238 batting average against. That being said, I don’t envision him excelling against a Yankees offense that’s seemingly found itself over the last week with it 5-2 and averaging just short of 7.0 runs per game. I’d come away extremely shocked if either starting pitcher saw the fifth inning! With both bullpens taxed in the previous series, the scenario will afford both offenses to flex their muscles late.
SAME GAME MLB PARLAY: FULL GAME OVER + YANKEES OVER TEAM TOTAL + REDS OVER TEAM TOTAL
Boston Red Sox vs. San Diego Padres
I bolted to the betting window to fade James Paxton in his 2023 debut against the Redbirds last Friday night. I figured St. Louis would run away and hide. It didn’t happen. Though “The Big Maple” was had for four hits (1 HR) and 2 ER through five innings, he only issued one free pass and rung up nine St. Louis batters via the strikeout. While his secondary pitches looked rough around the edges, his fastball was nothing if not electric with him pumping it over the plate at 96 mph. San Diego is a team to target when looking to go over a K prop at PointsBet with it going down on strikes nearly 24 percent of the time (No. 20).
Blake Snell is 1-5 with a 4.61 ERA and 5.25 FIP which lets it be known his stat line could be even worse than it is right now. The left-hander has only churned out quality starts in 38 percent of his outings with his 5.5 BB/9 average a major thorn in his side. Boston hasn’t been great at taking walks overall (No. 20), but it’s done a better job taking them on the road (No. 8). With the Red Sox 10-5 and averaging 5.4 runs per game against LHP, another quick exit to the showers will be in store for Snell if he can’t harness his control.
SAME GAME MLB PARLAY: RED SOX MONEYLINE + PAXTON OVER K PROP
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