Friday, May 12 MLB Best Bets

The nightmarish week continued at PointsBet Sportsbook with last Friday’s MLB Best Bets. We waited all night to go 0-3 starting off with the Washington Nationals who dropped a tough 3-1 decision to the D’backs. While Josiah Gray came up an inning short of churning out a third straight quality start, the offense simply had no answer for Merrill Kelly who racked up 10 K over seven strong innings. Clayton Kershaw got exposed in the series opener with the Padres while Yu Darvish brought his “A” game to the bump leading San Diego to the 5-2 win; they’re only triumph of the three-game set. And then there was the Mariners who fought back to tie the game in the eighth only to give up a pair in the top half of the ninth to fall by a 6-4 final count. The breaks, well none of them went our way last week. I’m hell-bent on getting back what we lost this week so let’s get it done with this Friday’s edition of Best Bets – SLAM YOUR MAN!!

YTD: 54-54-3 (-$295)

LW: 8-14 (-$840)

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New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals

With an extra day of rest to take advantage of, I’m expecting MacKenzie Gore to retake the starting bump rejuvenated and ready to go for his second standoff of the MLB betting season against the Mets. The first time the stud left-hander ran up against their NL East rivals, he went six strong innings and allowed four hits and 1 ER while racking up a season-high 10 K. He threw 101 pitches to help lead the Nats to the 4-1 triumph. Dave Martinez has allowed him to throw 103, 101, 102, and 95 pitches in his last four starts which lets it be known the coaching staff is comfortable giving him extended work.

That bodes extremely well in this spot versus a Mets lineup that ranks in the bottom third of the league in OPS against southpaws (No. 22) whom they’ve gone 5-10 against and averaged just 2.7 runs per game. Gore’s K props have been in the 5.5 to 6.5 range for the better part of the last three weeks. He’s exceeded the impost in three of his last four starts and is averaging 11.7 K/9 for the year. Only the San Francisco Giants possess a higher K rate against LHP than New York. Fingers crossed another 5.5 pops, but it’s highly likely we get a 6.5. Regardless, hit the over!

BET OVER MACKENZIE GORE’S K PROP

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Boston Red Sox

Shame on me! I should’ve known… Of course the St. Louis Cardinals would turn their season around in the “Friendly Confines.” Of course! But you know what, it’s about gosh darned time the Redbirds got their collective heads out of their derrieres! I hate to be the one to say it being a diehard Cubs fan, but St. Louis winning the NL Central at +450 is live over at PointsBet – shop around! And no this isn’t an overreaction to Wilson Contreras and his new mates taking the first two in Chicago to accrue their first three-game win streak of 2023. Remember, the Cardinals entered the season the +115 odds-on favorite to repeat!

Boston got out to a rough start to their MLB betting campaign, but managed to get into a groove to at the very least get back into the wild card discussion for now. I wonder how long it lasts though. They’ve already dropped two straight since rattling off eight straight and with it three straight series triumphs. I think this positive trip to Wrigley regardless of it resulting in a sweep propels the team into Beantown with a head of steam. No reason to break the starting pitchers down with Adam Wainwright making start No. 2 and James Paxton taking the bump for the first time since early 2021. It’s all about momentum here and I think the Cardinals are the team regressing positively right now.

BET THE CARDINALS

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies

I targeted Bailey Falter’s last start at home against the Red Sox. We attacked his matchup against Corey Kluber from all angles and nearly swept the board hitting the over for the F5 and FG as well as the over of both team totals. Boston went on to win 7-4 and bounced Falter after he conceded six hits and 5 ER over 3.2 innings. It marked the second straight start that he failed to pitch through the fourth inning. Colorado has squared off against 12 lefty starters and stands 6-6 ($260) while averaging 5.7 runs per game. I don’t foresee him long for this one pitching in the thin air of Coors where the Rox have averaged 5.1 runs per game (No. 8) and own a .802 OPS (No. 6).

I don’t know what it is about Austin Gomber but the dude simply knows how to do just enough to continue holding onto a starting gig in the Rockies rotation. While nothing about his arsenal jumps off the page and his 4.3 walks and 5.6 strikeouts per nine innings do absolutely nothing to breed confidence, he enters start No. 8 in fine form having allowed 11 hits and 3 ER over his last 17 innings (3 starts). He gets the benefit of opposing the Phillies who clock in 3-7 against the MLB odds while averaging a league-worst 2.5 runs per game against LHP. Though Falter’s platoon splits find him excelling against right-handed bats, Colorado’s offense is in a groove right now having plated an average of 6.6 runs over their last nine games. Can’t believe I’m saying this, but we’re backing the home team in the series opener!

BET THE ROCKIES

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