Friday, April 28 MLB Best Bets

We ended up 3-2 over at PointsBet Sportsbook with last Friday’s MLB Best Bets! We split our first four positions of the night losing the F5 and FG over in the Blue Jays/Yankees matchup, but got both losses back in the Reds/Pirates game on the F5 and FG under. We then closed the night out with an easy cash on Zac Gallen and the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Snakes have a bona fide NL Cy Young contender leading their charge this MLB betting season! Here’s to raking in more profits with Friday’s edition of Best Bets – SLAM YOUR MAN!!

YTD: 34-30-3 ($332)

LW: 10-7-1 ($115)

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Chicago Cubs vs. Miami Marlins

Struggling against the Phillies who’ve handled left-handed pitching well to date is one thing. Doing so immediately after against the Giants who’ve proven to be allergic to south paws came off as a major warning sign to me. So much so that we faded Jesus Luzardo in his most recent turn at Cleveland and did so with success after he failed to pitch through the fifth a second straight time while conceding 4 ER before heading to the showers. He’s now been gotten for 3+ earned runs in three straight starts and now must run up against a Cubs offense that’s raked LHP to the tune of a .807 OPS (No. 6) while averaging 6.8 runs per game.

Chicago’s peppered 4-seamers which just so happens to be Luzardo’s most widely used pitch (38%), and they’ve also had major success against the changeup with five batters churning out excellent run values per Baseball Savant. The strikeout has been Luzardo’s best friend and he’s likely to get his in this spot with Chicago sporting a 27 percent K-Rate against lefties, but I’m betting on Luzardo continuing to struggle against a tough opponent. Marcus Stroman owns a career 2.95 ERA and has allowed just 6 ER through 18.1 career innings at Marlins Park. Miami hasn’t fared well against the sinker. Should his offense give him the run support I think they can, he and the pen will lock the series opener down.

BET THE CUBS

Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Luis Castillo has gotten out to a fantastic start to his first full season toeing the bump for the Mariners. He’s 2-0 with a miniscule 1.52 ERA and logged a quality start in three of five outings. However, he’s amassed his perfect record and almost invisible ERA against some of the worst offenses in MLB. Cleveland and Colorado rank amongst the bottom third of the league, while the Angels and Cardinals have hit the ball much differently on the road than at home. Castillo got the pleasure of running up against each in the comforts of T-Mobile Park.

Did I mention that four of his five starts came at home? No; well they did! His lone road start occurred in Chicago and the M’s lost to the Cubs 3-2 in a game he took a no-decision. Toronto just so happens to be one of the best hitting teams in the bigs, and they’ve peppered RHP to the tune of a .767 OPS to log an 11-6 record. It’s also destroyed the 4-seamer and sinker which just so happen to be Castillo’s two most heavily used pitches. The BJs were embarrassed by Seattle last season dropping four of six in the regular season before getting swept in the AL Wild Card round. The M’s will be dead on arrival if Alek Manoah carries the momentum from his last start in the Bronx into this one! Can you say statement game?!

BET THE BLUE JAYS

Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets

It’s highly possible the Mets bullpen will be overworked heading into Friday night’s series opener with the Braves. After being forced to burn four relievers on Wednesday night due to Kodai Senga only giving them five innings, the likelihood of needing to tax the pen exists for Thursday with Joey Lucchesi squaring off against a Nats offense that’s been more than respectable against LHP. Should that turn out to be the case, I think Atlanta gets medieval on the Mets in their first clash of the 2023 MLB betting season.

The Braves have knocked left-handed pitching around to the tune of a .901 OPS (No. 3) which has amounted to an average of 5.1 runs per game and 6-2 record. David Peterson has been bludgeoned for 33 hits (7 HR) and has only made it through the sixth in one of his five made starts. Atlanta owning the hitting split advantage paired with Max Fried continuing to be one of the most underrated pitchers in the league has me leaning Atlanta’s way big time! He held NY to a .207 BAA through 29 innings over five starts last season and owns a career 3.18 ERA at Citi Field. His curve is a thing of beauty and the Mets can’t hit the pitch type to save their life right now. His last two K props were 3.5 and 4.5. I’m slamming the over if linemakers continue with the disrespect!

BET THE BRAVES + OVER FRIED’S K PROP

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