Saturday, April 22 MLB Best Bets
April 21, 2023
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April 24, 2023
We ended up 3-1-1 over at PointsBet Sportsbook with last Friday’s MLB Best Bets! I’m still scratching my head over how the D’backs/Marlins game didn’t’ go over in the F5 and FG with the Mad Bum and Trevor Rogers squaring off. We pushed the F5 but lost the full game over with only six combined runs scored on 17 hits with five logged through five. We did however cash in with the Baltimore Orioles in the opener and ultimately cashed the series bet in against the White Sox as well. We closed the night out with a pair of cashes in the Twins/Yankees matchup with the under for the F5 and FG cashing with ease. Here’s to raking in more profits with Friday’s edition of Best Bets – SLAM YOUR MAN!!
YTD: 24-23-2 ($217)
LW: 12-12-2 (-$55)
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
With Graham Ashcraft getting scratched in Thursday’s opener, we’re coming right back on the under in what looks to be an even cushier pitching matchup. These NL Central rivals already squared off in the GAB the opening series of the season, and it was the Reds that took two of three. One of those dubs was secured by Graham Ashcraft who tossed seven sterling innings at the Buccos and only surrendered four hits (1 HR) and 1 ER while racking up a 6:1 K/BB ratio. His cutter, slider, sinker usage resulted in 10 whiffs and 26 percent called + swinging strikes – not too shabby for a season debut! Since then, the right-hander has earned a no-decision and win against the Braves and Phillies respectively.
Opposing him will be Mitch Keller who enters start No. 5 off his roughest showing to date after giving up seven hits (1 HR) and 3 ER while issuing two free passes and only registering 3 K. The strikeout tally was his lowest of 2023. After thriving in his prior two starts against Boston and Houston, this is a huge show-me spot for the right-hander who the Buccos hope has matured enough to carry the load for the pitching staff this season. We’ll see if the negative regression monster is hot on his trail or not running up against a Reds offense that possesses little power (No. 26 in HR) that owns a .374 slugging percentage against RHP (No. 22). Still, Cincy got to him for six hits (1 HR) and 4 ER when he faced them back on March 30. That however was his season debut, so a much better showing is expected if 2023 is in fact his breakout campaign. Let’s test the waters and see if it comes to fruition.
BET THE F5 & FG UNDER 8.5
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
The Yankees have had issues against starting left-handed pitching with the team batting a wretched .186 (No. 30) and averaging 2.3 runs per game (No. 28). That however has only come against three opponents. As right-handed heavy New York’s batting lineup is, those outputs are sure to regress positively and I’m expecting that to take shape Friday night with Yusei Kikuchi and his 4.70 ERA set to take the bump in the Bronx. The southpaw was stellar last time out in tossing six innings of 1 ER ball at the Rays while logging a season-high nine strikeouts. The Japanese import has been fantastic within Yankee Stadium evidenced by a career 2.01 ERA and .120 BAA, but the Yanks have been ripping the cover off the 4-seamer and that’s his go to pitch.
Domingo German enters start No. 4 off his best showing of the season versus the Twins in allowing five hits and only 2 ER while racking up 11 strikeouts. The start before that, the right-hander only lasted three innings after issuing five walks. You never know what you’re going to get when it comes to the Dominican. If his preferred curveball fails to hit the zone, he’ll be in a heaping load of trouble with Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Co. ripping the cover off 4-seam fastball offerings with six everyday position players owning positive run values against the pitch per Baseball Savant.
BET THE F5 & FG OVER
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Anyone impressed with the way the Friars have gotten out of the blocks? I can’t say I am with the team just 9-11 overall and down close to $300 for MLB bettors over at PointsBet! How about the D’backs? If not, just know that Arizona clocks in as the third most lucrative team to bet on to this point with it 11 games up and eight games down – an output that’s added nearly $700 worth of baseball betting profit to their supporter’s bottom line – I’ll buy that for a dollar!
I get that Seth Lugo has gotten out to a rock solid start in going 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 17:5 K/BB ratio, but I’ve seen this before from the right-hander. It’s only a matter of time until he turns back into a pumpkin. Zac Gallen is the alpha in this matchup, and enters his fifth start 2-1 with a 3.33 ERA and .202 BAA having logged quality starts in two straight. Oddsmaker’s aren’t giving him enough respect in my opinion with Padres’ batters mostly owning negative run values against his three most widely used pitches – especially the cutter! Run to the window and get this bet in now!
BET THE DIAMONDBACKS -105
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