It was tough to lose both of our parlays last week considering most of our reads were spot on. Kent State was able to upset Buffalo as a road underdog by the college football betting odds, and Louisiana-Lafayette ran roughshod over Texas State as a single-digit road favorite. Unfortunately, Baylor blew a halftime lead against Texas as Bijan Robinson wore down the Bears’ defense, and Florida State failed to cover against Florida by 2.5 points as the defense had one too many missed assignments.
There isn’t a lot to choose from this week since there are only the 10 conference championship games and Buffalo’s bid to become bowl eligible against Akron, but there is some value on the board.
Championship Game Parlay of the Week
Tulane ML -175 and Kansas State ML +108
$100 to Win $226.86 at BetRivers Sportsbook
You can’t really back either of the two major underdogs on the moneyline this weekend. Purdue stands no real shot of knocking off Michigan in the Big Ten Championship Game, and LSU won’t be able to do enough on offense to beat Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.
The best value on the board lies in Tulane in the AAC Championship Game. Although the Green Wave lost to UCF three weeks ago, there is reason to believe they will knock off the Knights this time around. John Rhys Plumlee’s mobility allowed UCF to score 38 points, as he finished the game with 18 carries for 176 yards and two touchdowns. Plumlee is one of the best rushing quarterbacks in the country and leads UCF with 848 yards (6.2 YPC) and 11 touchdowns. However, he injured his hamstring last week against USF, and he is unlikely to be as effective.
UCF’s backup quarterback is Mikey Keene, and he is not a mobile threat. That plays into Tulane’s hands as this secondary is arguably the best in the AAC. Gus Malzahn’s schemes largely rely on a mobile quarterback to make them work, but an injured and possibly inactive Plumlee will seriously limit what this offense can do against the Green Wave. Tulane was -2 in the turnover battle last time, and the Green Wave should be able to win this game as long as turnovers don’t hurt them.
Kansas State is not much of an underdog per the CFB betting line against undefeated TCU in the Big 12 Championship Game. The Wildcats may have lost to the Horned Frogs in Fort Worth earlier this season, but this team has been much better over the last several weeks since Will Howard took over for Adrian Martinez as the starting quarterback. Howard has been a more effective passer, averaging 9.3 YPA with 13 touchdowns and two interceptions, and that has led to Kansas State scoring at least 27 points in each game with him under center.
The Horned Frogs have an explosive offense, but this defense can be worn down, and the Wildcats have the potential to drop 40-plus on Saturday in Arlington, Texas.
Group of Five Parlay of the Week
Troy -8 vs. Coastal Carolina and LSU +17.5 vs. Georgia
$100 to Win $267.65 at BetRivers Sportsbook
As long as Grayson McCall doesn’t make a surprising start for Coastal Carolina this week, Troy should blow out the Chanticleers in the Sun Belt Championship Game. McCall was named the Sun Belt Player of the Year for the third straight season earlier this week, but he hasn’t played in over a month. This offense is not the same without him, and the Trojans have easily the best defense in the Sun Belt. No team has scored more than 28 points against Troy all year long, and the Trojans have an outstanding front seven.
It feels a little dicey to back LSU after last week’s loss to Texas A&M, but 17.5 points is too much to give the Bayou Bengals. They were blown out by Tennessee earlier this season, but Georgia is not a team that can pour on the points. The Bulldogs will be content to just win this game, and there’s a decent chance that the hook comes into play. Jayden Daniels has done an excellent job protecting the ball, so the Bulldogs won’t feast on turnovers like they have against other teams.