Unfortunately, we had another 1-2 performance against the CFB betting odds last week. Georgia’s defense allowed quite a bit of offense against UAB, leading to the Bulldogs never getting in front of the number on Saturday night. We did see a strong performance from the offense, yet that wasn’t enough for the No. 1 team in the country to get the cover, and Georgia has fallen to 1-3 ATS against the football betting line. Additionally, if you were unlucky with the number you received against Ball State, Georgia might be 0-4 ATS in your book since the Bulldogs only managed to cover by a half-point in that game.
Despite Georgia’s performance, we were unlucky not to go 2-1 ATS last week. Clemson was better than Florida State for nearly the entire game, but a fumble return for a touchdown coupled with unreliable kicking allowed the Seminoles to escape with a 31-24 overtime win. FSU didn’t lead for a single second in regulation, but Keon Coleman caught a 24-yard touchdown pass in overtime to win it for the visitors and cover the number as a 2.5-point favorite by the NCAA football betting odds.
Our lone win of the day was much closer than expected at the final gun. James Madison was a 6.5-point favorite on the road against Utah State, and the Dukes jumped out to a 24-0 lead in the second quarter. They had 38 points at halftime, but they needed a touchdown with six minutes left in the fourth quarter to cover the number.
YTD Record: 5-10 ATS
Notre Dame -5.5
For the first time ever, College Gameday is coming to Duke this week. The Blue Devils are off to a 4-0 start, as Mike Elko has done an incredible job with the program. They went 9-4 with a win in the Military Bowl in his first season, and they are currently ranked No. 17 in the country thanks to an exceptional defense.
Notre Dame is also led by a defensive head coach. The Fighting Irish hired Marcus Freeman to lead the team after Brian Kelly left for LSU, and Freeman has given the team more of a foundation on that side of the ball. They fell to Ohio State last week in a defensive slugfest, but it’s hard to imagine Duke having more success on offense. That makes the Under a very nice play with a total over 50.
Play: Under 51.5
South Florida +4
South Florida appears to be turning the corner under new head coach Alex Golesh. The program bottomed out under former head coach Jeff Scott, but they have been much more competitive in the first month under Golesh’s watch. They were very competitive in losses to Alabama and Western Kentucky despite losing by double digits, and they took care of business at home against Rice last week as a short underdog by the CFB betting odds.
Meanwhile, Navy is in search of an identity. The Midshipmen are still trying to run the triple option even though its efficacy has been curtailed by the cut blocking rules that were passed in 2022. The main thing they have going for them ahead of this game is two-plus weeks of rest, but that doesn’t change the fact that they are running an outdated system. Tai Lavatai is a better passer than most option quarterbacks, but he is not an effective runner and South Florida’s speed will be too much.
Play: South Florida +4
Michigan State +12
There aren’t many situations where it’s wise to lay double digits with Iowa in a conference game. The Hawkeyes could only muster four first downs last week in a blowout loss to Penn State, and they continue to have a lot of trouble moving the ball under Brian Ferentz.
However, Michigan State is a program in disarray. The Spartans are set to be embroiled in a protracted legal battle with head coach Mel Tucker that is already sucking the life out of the team. After two big wins over Central Michigan and FCS side Richmond to start the season, Michigan State has been blown out by a combined score of 72-16 in losses to Washington and Maryland. The Spartans rank 107th nationally in total defense, so the Hawkeyes should be able to establish the run and have enough success on offense to cover the number.
Play: Iowa -12