For the second straight week, we were a perfect 3-0 ATS on our college football parlay best bets. Once again, putting all three of these bets in a parlay would have paid close to 10-1 as the CFB betting odds moved against us with Kansas State all week. We jumped on the Wildcats as a five-point favorite against UCF, and the line moved all the way down to 3.5 points before kickoff. Kansas State covered all numbers though by welcoming UCF to the Big XII with a 44-31 drubbing in Manhattan. The Wildcats accumulated 32 first downs and 536 total yards, and D.J. Giddens and Will Howard combined to run the ball 37 times for 271 yards and six touchdowns.
There was never a doubt that we were on the right side in our second play. We took Under 55 in the Ole Miss-Alabama game, and that bet ended up cashing by three touchdowns as the Crimson Tide won 24-10. The third and final pick was a little hairier though as Cincinnati managed to cover the CFB betting line by a single point in its 20-6 loss to Oklahoma. Both defenses stood tall, and the Bearcats actually won the time of possession battle.
LSU -2.5 at Ole Miss
Although this line screams ‘trap’, we will likely jump on LSU at anything less than a field goal per the football betting odds against any other SEC team not named Georgia. The Tigers look to be the best team in the SEC West even though they struggled in their win over Arkansas last week. LSU’s secondary had trouble stopping Arkansas through the air, allowing 9.3 YPA as the Razorbacks converted on eight of 13 third down attempts. The Bayou Bengals were much better on offense, averaging 6.5 YPC and 11.0 YPA through the air, and they had to settle for two field goals inside the 10-yard line.
Ole Miss just isn’t as talented as it was last year. Jaxson Dart is solid, but not a game changer under center, and the Rebels don’t have a ton of talent surrounding him on either side of the ball. LSU has the skill position players to put up points on the Rebels, and this could easily be a letdown spot for the Rebs after a rough loss to the Crimson Tide last week.
Texas Tech -8 vs. Houston
We’re of the belief that Texas Tech is one of those teams that is great at home and awful on the road. The Red Raiders hung around with Oregon at home in Week 2, losing by a single score, and they hammered Tarleton State in the following game. However, they lost in double overtime on the road at Wyoming and looked lackluster against West Virginia last week.
Starting quarterback Tyler Shough suffered a season-ending injury, so Behren Morton is the new starting quarterback for the Red Raiders. Morton did not look great in his first start at West Virginia last week, but he should perform better in Lubbock this Saturday. Additionally, Houston’s starting quarterback (Donovan Smith) spent two years at Texas Tech before transferring to the Cougars this offseason, so the Red Raiders should be able to put the clamps on their opponents.
California vs. Arizona State Under 48.5
Arizona State is not as good on offense as it looked last week against USC. The Sun Devils only scored 21 points against Southern Utah, totaled 15 points against Oklahoma State, and they were shut out by Fresno State. Additionally, their top two quarterbacks are out as both Jaden Rashada and Trenton Bourguet are sidelined due to injury, so we’d be surprised to see the Sun Devils score more than 17 points against a very good Cal defense.
The Golden Bears will be looking to prove something on that side of the ball after Washington roasted them for 59 points in Seattle last week. Arizona State doesn’t have near the same talent at receiver, or a QB that can spin it like Michael Penix Jr., so the Sun Devils will have trouble moving the ball all game long.