It was tough to see our College Football Week 4 Line Move Plays go 2-2 ATS last week. We should have been looking at a 3-1 week, but we were unfortunate with the Under in the Ohio-Bowling Green game. There were just 29 first downs in that game and 539 total yards between the two teams, but they managed to combine to score 45 points to put the game over the total by a half-point on the NCAA football betting line.
We were dead wrong when it came to backing Bowling Green in that game, but the two winners were both easy cashes with no sweat at all. The total in the Oregon-Colorado game was set at 70.5 points, but the Buffaloes were totally unable to move the ball in a game that finished with just 48 points. Elsewhere, Florida Atlantic was always within the number in covering 15.5 points on the road against Illinois. The Owls led 10-0 at the end of the first quarter and lost by a margin of six points.
College Football Week 5 Betting Odds at BetRivers Sportsbook
James Madison has been extremely impressive through two seasons in the FBS. The perennial FCS powerhouse went 8-3 in its first season, and the Dukes are off to a 4-0 start in 2023. They have gone on the road to knock off three straight teams in Virginia, Troy, and Utah State, and now they will return to Harrisonburg to take on South Alabama.
The Jaguars are just 2-2, but this is a very good team. They went on the road and hammered Oklahoma State, but they laid an egg at home against Central Michigan as a 16.5-point favorite per the CFB betting odds last week. It looked like the Jaguars put it in cruise control too early against the Chippewas, and CMU made them pay.
We have seen the college football betting line move in favor of South Alabama in this game, but James Madison is a strong team at home and won’t give up a ton of points.
Play: James Madison -3
It’s been a rough year for both Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech to this point. The Panthers have lost three straight games to FBS opponents after winning their season opener against Wofford by 38 points. Pitt has averaged 17 PPG in its three FBS losses, and the Panthers could be in for a long night in Blacksburg on Saturday.
Pitt will be without standout left tackle Matt Goncalves for the rest of the season, and quarterback Phil Jurkovec is questionable for this game. Jurkovec is already playing poorly, completing 51.1% of his passes for 6.5 YPA with four touchdowns and three interceptions through four games, and this will make him even less reliable.
Virginia Tech is having some major issues of its own. The Hokies are the worst they have been in over a generation. They went just 3-8 last season, and they are off to a 1-3 start in 2023. Grant Wells is injured and unlikely to play on Saturday, and Kyron Drones hasn’t been great in his stead.
Those factors have led to the CFB betting total in this game dropping from 42.5 to 39.5. Still, the Under is the right side despite the line move.
Plays: Under 39.5
The CFB betting line for the oldest rivalry in the Deep South has bounced around a bit over the course of the week. Georgia opened as a 17-point favorite, and that line went down to 14 at some sportsbooks before finding a middle ground.
Georgia is definitely the right side in this game. Auburn is not in a good spot right now as Hugh Freeze will need some time to install his system and bring in his players. The Bulldogs seemed to take last week off a little in order to be better prepared for the Tigers, so we expect them to take their rival to the woodshed this week. This feels like a statement game for Georgia, so don’t be surprised if the Bulldogs win by 24+ here.
Play: Georgia -15.5