We were a perfect 3-0 on our three college football parlay bets last weekend, and if you put those three picks into a parlay then you would have earned a 10-1 return on your money. What was particularly impressive is that we didn’t have to sweat any of those three selections.
Florida withstood an early touchdown from Tennessee and ended up controlling the rest of the game to win by 13 points as close to a touchdown underdog by the CFB betting odds. Money poured in on Alabama as a heavy favorite by the college football betting line against South Florida, but the Crimson Tide showed that they might be simply human this year in a narrow win in which they had to lean heavily on their defense. Finally, although Texas beat Wyoming 31-10, that game was tied going into the fourth quarter so the Cowboys had no trouble covering the number.
Kansas State -5 vs. UCF
This is without a doubt my favorite bet of the week. Kansas State should be laying at least a touchdown at home against UCF, even though the Wildcats fell to Missouri last week. Brady Cook hit some big time throws to lead Missouri to an upset win over Kansas State last Saturday, but UCF doesn’t have a quarterback that can do the same thing through the air.
The Knights are 3-0 and garnering buzz, but they beat an overrated Boise State team, an awful MAC team in Kent State, and an FCS team in Villanova. Neither John Rhys Plumlee nor Timmy McClain are strong passers despite what their stats may tell you, as UCF is a run-heavy team under Gus Malzahn. Meanwhile, Kansas State has one of the best run defenses in the country, and the Wildcats can really stymie this offense if they can limit UCF’s effectiveness on the ground.
Kansas State is likely to control the clock and move the ball effectively with Will Howard under center, and I would be very surprised if they didn’t win this game by at least two scores.
Under 55 in Alabama vs. Ole Miss
Until Alabama figures out its quarterback situation, the Crimson Tide should not have an over/under in the 50s unless they are playing a truly outmatched opponent. Ole Miss and Alabama have played some high scoring games in the recent past, but the Rebels aren’t nearly as talented on offense as they were a few years ago, and the Crimson Tide are still elite on defense.
Ole Miss is only converting 26.1% of its third down opportunities, and that won’t get it done against Alabama. The Rebels are going to repeatedly sputter on offense against an elite defense like the Crimson Tide even though they have two experienced quarterbacks in Jaxson Dart and Spencer Sanders. Quinshon Judkins is averaging just 3.3 YPC as the primary running back, and that doesn’t bode well for moving the chains against Bama.
Cincinnati +15 vs. Oklahoma
This is not going to be a popular play after Cincinnati lost at home to Miami of Ohio in overtime last week. However, that’s a more bitter rivalry game than anyone knows, and the Bearcats definitely could have been looking ahead to Oklahoma this Saturday. The Sooners may have righted the ship on offense after blowout wins over Tulsa and Arkansas State, and the defense is averaging just 9.3 PPG.
Emory Jones isn’t a great quarterback, and he doesn’t have the same talent around him as Dillion Gabriel. Jones is a solid runner though, and we have repeatedly seen how important that is in modern college football. He is an experienced signal caller due to his time at Florida and Cincinnati, so he won’t be flustered against OU’s defense.
Oklahoma has bounced back after an awful 2022 campaign under Brent Venables. The Sooners were truly mediocre last season, but they are off to a 3-0 start and would love to win the Big 12 one more time before absconding to the SEC. This is simply too many points though, especially with a potential lookahead to Texas in two weeks.