This is the biggest week in college football so far this season. There are several games with an incredible amount of importance like Florida State-Clemson, Colorado-Oregon, UCLA-Utah, Ole Miss-Alabama, Oregon State-Washington State, Iowa-Penn State, and Ohio State-Notre Dame this week. That will almost certainly lead to this being the week with the most betting volume so far this young season.
Our Week 3 Line Move Plays went 1-2 ATS last week. The steam went the wrong way in the totals we highlighted, but Miami of Ohio was able to upset Cincinnati outright as a two-touchdown underdog by the CFB betting odds.
College Football Week 4 Betting Odds at BetRivers Sportsbook
Once again, we have to highlight the Colorado Buffaloes. However, for the first time all season, the CFB betting line is going against the Buffs and in a big way. Colorado was initially a 15-point underdog against Oregon this weekend, but that line has ballooned to 21 points as two-way star Travis Hunter will miss the game. The Buffs really struggled to put away in-state rival Colorado State last week, and their wins against Nebraska and TCU no longer have the same juice after those two schools have stumbled out of the gate.
Meanwhile, Oregon looks to be a real national championship contender. The Ducks are ranked in the top ten, and they have one of the best home field advantages in the country in Autzen Stadium. Bo Nix has rejuvenated his career after transferring in from Auburn, and he is on the short list of Heisman favorites according to the most recent college football betting futures.
Pretty much all the value is gone in Oregon at this point, making this a Colorado or nothing game at this number. There is still some value in the under although it has fallen by a couple points, so that is our pick here.
Play: Under 70.5
Bowling Green +13
Ohio picked up a big win last week even though Kurtis Rourke is clearly not at 100%. The Bobcats rode a strong defensive effort to a 10-7 victory over Iowa State, moving to 2-1 on the season. However, this is not a team that is equipped to blow opponents out for as long as Rourke is dinged up. No Ohio game has had more than 33 total points scored in it this season, and the average Bobcats’ game has seen Ohio average 13.3 PPG and their opponents average 12.3 PPG.
Bowling Green fell to Ohio by a margin of 24 points in Athens last season, but the Falcons look to be much better on defense this year. They held Michigan to just 31 points in Ann Arbor last week, and although they don’t have a great offense, they can score enough points to keep this game within the number.
Plays: Bowling Green +13, Under 44.5
Florida Atlantic +15.5
The line movement in this game is largely due to the news we received about Florida Atlantic quarterback Casey Thompson earlier in the week. The former Texas and Nebraska signal caller was great against FCS Monmouth in the season opener, but he suffered a season-ending knee injury against Clemson last weekend.
Central Michigan transfer Daniel Richardson will take over the starting job, and he has a bevy of experience after two years as a starter with the Chippewas. Richardson burst onto the scene in 2021, but he averaged 2.0 YPA less in his second year, and he is not a great runner.
Illinois’ defense isn’t as strong as it was last year, and standout defensive back Matthew Bailey tore his ACL last week too. The Fighting Illini are just 1-2 and susceptible to teams that can keep the ball away from a ground control based offense.
At the end of the day, we don’t think the Illini will be able to score enough to cover a line that is currently more than two touchdowns by the college football betting odds. Quarterback Luke Altmyer has been too mistake prone with three touchdowns and seven picks, so Bret Bielema will take the ball out of his hands.
Play: Florida Atlantic +15.5