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We will see another iteration of the best rivalry in college basketball this weekend when the Duke Blue Devils welcome the North Carolina Tar Heels for the short jaunt up Tobacco Road. Both Duke and North Carolina have been somewhat underwhelming this year, as the Blue Devils are 16-6 (7-4 in the ACC) and the Tar Heels are 15-7 (7-4 in the ACC). However, both programs would make the NCAA Tournament if it were to start today, and UNC showed us that this program is always a threat to make a deep run last season.
The Duke Blue Devils will be favored by the college basketball betting odds when they host the North Carolina Tar Heels on Saturday, February 4, 2023, at 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN from Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, North Carolina.
North Carolina Tar Heels at Duke Blue Devils Betting Odds at BetRivers Sportsbook
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North Carolina Tar Heels at Duke Blue Devils Preview
It was never going to be easy for first-year head coach Jon Scheyer to replace the greatest head coach in modern college basketball. Mike Krzyzewski led Duke to five national championships and set the career record for Division I wins before stepping away from the game.
The Blue Devils did put together a monster recruiting class, signing three of the top four prospects according to 247 Sports. Unfortunately, the only player that has lived up to the expectations so far has been center Kyle Filipowski.
Filipowski leads Duke with 15.8 PPG and 9.5 RPG. He isn’t that efficient because he is being asked to do a lot of the scoring for this team, and he isn’t a great three-point shooter. Still, he has been much better than fellow freshmen phenoms Dariq Whitehead and Dereck Lively II. Whitehead is now dealing with a leg injury and is unlikely to play on Saturday, but Lively might finally be turning the corner. Lively still isn’t much of an offensive threat, but he has 28 rebounds and 12 blocked shots in his last four games.
Duke has been great on the offensive glass, ranking second nationally in offensive rebounding percentage per Ken Pomeroy. The Blue Devils are shooting free throws at a pretty impressive clip too, but those are the only two areas in which they excel on offense. They have been abysmal from beyond the arc, making just 32.5% of their threes as a team, but at least Jeremy Roach is shooting at a better clip than he did last season.
North Carolina was expected to be much better considering the Tar Heels brought back four of five starters from a team that made it to the national championship game last season. The Tar Heels lost four straight games in late November and early December, but they have somewhat righted the ship at this point with a 10-3 record in their last 13 games. However, UNC was unable to beat the Pittsburgh Panthers in either of their meetings and fell by a point to Pitt on Wednesday night.
Unfortunately, the Tar Heels are an even worse perimeter shooting team than the Blue Devils. UNC is making just 31.1% of its threes on the season, and that ranks 306th nationally. Caleb Love has taken 154 threes, but he is making just 28.6% of his triples, and that’s been a big problem for this team. Leaky Black is hitting just 28.3% of his threes, so the best three-point shooter is R.J. Davis who is making 36.1%.
Armando Bacot hasn’t been as effective in the paint without Brady Manek either. Bacot is averaging 17.7 PPG and 11.4 RPG while making 56.6% of his field goals, but the Tar Heels are missing the presence of another quality big man. Northwestern transfer Pete Nance was expected to help in this regard, but he hasn’t been too much of a difference maker.
North Carolina Tar Heels at Duke Blue Devils Prediction
The best bet in this game is probably the “Under” considering the shooting issues both teams have had this season. They won’t be afraid to get physical, and the referees should let some of that action go due to the history between these schools.
