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July 14, 2022
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July 14, 2022
Never in my wet and wildest did I expect the Cincinnati Bengals to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl at the outset of the 2021-22 NFL betting season. Not many did. Zac Taylor’s third year at the helm saw Cincy installed 80-1 dogs to win the conference with a 6.5-game season wins total. They were as high as 150-1 underdogs to win the Super Bowl through week 6 at SugarHouse Sportsbook before being bet all the way down to 20-1 heading into the wild-card round. To say this team exceeded expectations would be quite the understatement!
Before the season kicked off, Cincy was expected to run up against one of the toughest schedule strengths. As it played out, it ended up being one of the easiest. This allowed for Joe Burrow to shine in his sophomore season, but it wouldn’t have been nearly as memorable if not for the impact Ja’Marr Chase had in his Offensive Rookie of the Year Award-winning campaign. While the offense was still able to excel with a sieve-like offensive line paving its way, it was an overachieving defense that ultimately allowed the Bengals to pull out that unforeseen trek to Super Bowl Sunday. All the stars aligned in a season it came from out of nowhere to shock the world. How will it react now that it’s no longer the hunter but instead the hunted?
The Bengals shot themselves out of a cannon prematurely in my eyes. They play in a meat grinder of a division that I believe any of the four teams can win. That paired with a schedule that has seven playoff teams on it, has me bearish on the team’s ability to match last season’s 10 wins.
Bet the Cincinnati Bengals Season Wins Total at SugarHouse Sportsbook
Cincinnati Bengals Season Wins Total: 9.5 Over -110
After bringing up the rear of the AFC North standings for three straight seasons and failing to log a winning record five straight times, the Bengals went on to win 10 regular season games to punch their ticket into the playoffs. They did so against what proved to be a laughable schedule with backup QBs staring at their defense four times along with rookie Trevor Lawrence and the ghost of Ben Roethlisberger twice. What was expected to be the seventh toughest schedule turned into the third easiest because of it. Sharp Football Analysis once again predicts the Bengals to run up against the 7th toughest overall schedule and second toughest in the division.
Through the Super Bowl, the Bengals went 8-5 SU in one-score games, with all four outcomes playing out as such in the playoffs. If the team were a cat, it would’ve lost at least six lives! Cincy was a very fortuitous bunch both on the playing field and injury front. I highly doubt lightning strikes twice!
Cincinnati Bengals Football Schedule
Week 1: Steelers at Bengals, Sunday, September 11, 1 p.m. ET
Week 2: Bengals at Cowboys, Sunday, September 18, 4:25 p.m. ET
Week 3: Bengals at Jets, Sunday, September 25, 1 p.m. ET
Week 4: Dolphins at Bengals, Thursday, September 29, 8:15 p.m. ET, PRIME
Week 5: Bengals at Ravens, Sunday, October 9, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Week 6: Bengals at Saints, Sunday, October 16, 4:25 p.m. ET
Week 7: Falcons at Bengals, Sunday, October 23, 4:25 p.m. ET
Week 8: Bengals at Browns, Monday, October 31, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
Week 9: Panthers at Bengals, Sunday, November 6, 1 p.m. ET
Week 10: Bye Week
Week 11: Bengals at Steelers, Sunday, November 20, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Week 12: Bengals at Titans, Sunday, November 27, 1 p.m. ET
Week 13: Chiefs at Bengals, Sunday, December 4, 4:25 p.m. ET
Week 14: Browns at Bengals, Sunday, December 11, 1 p.m. ET
Week 15: Bengals at Buccaneers, Sunday, December 18, 4:25 p.m. ET
Week 16: Bengals at Patriots, Saturday, December 24, 1 p.m. ET
Week 17: Bills at Bengals, Monday, January 2, 8:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Week 18: Ravens at Bengals, Sunday, January 8, 1 p.m. ET
Cincinnati Bengals Season Win Total Analysis
What else can one say about the job Burrow and the passing attack churned out last season? The former LSU standout would go on to throw for over 4,600 yards and a 34:14 TD/INT ratio. He got a ton of help from his friends, with Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd all showing out in combining for nearly 3,400 receiving yards and 24 touchdowns. It all added up to the No. 7 ranked passing attack that allowed for Cincy to rate out No. 13 overall and No. 7 in scoring. Though Joe Mixon put forth a banner showing with over 1,500 scrimmage yards and 16 TD, the ground attack still only rated out as the No. 23 ranked unit.
With La’el Collins, Ted Karras, and Alex Kappa brought in to shore up the front line, Cincy looks to have one of the more lethal offensive lineups at its disposal; a theory backed by Chase and Higgins priced amongst the best in the league at SugarHouse to lead it in receiving yards. It only gets better with a stud weapon like Evan McPherson, who exhibited having ice water in his veins throughout his rookie season.
But just how good is Cincinnati’s defense? Is it really the unit that ranked amongst the top-five in rush D and held Kansas City to a field goal in the second half and overtime of the 27-24 AFC title game win? I’m not sold! It didn’t look like upper management was either, with five of its six picks in the NFL Draft coming on the defensive side of the ball. Negative regression is bound to hit this team in some way, shape, or form. As manageable the schedule looks through the Week 10 bye, it’s going to be a chore closing it out. All eight opponents could be fighting for playoff positioning themselves by the time they come up on the schedule.
Should the injury bug play more of a role this time around, the season could get away from them real fast. Even if at full strength all the way through, they still got the AFC East and NFC South with standalone games against the Dallas Cowboys and Tennessee Titans, both on the road. The Super Bowl loser is 5-1-1 to the under of their season wins total the last seven years, with two of the last three failing to even qualify for the second season. So be it if this young, up and coming team is simply just that good. I’ll pay up to make them prove me wrong!
Cincinnati Bengals Season Win Total Prediction: Under 9.5
