Undisputed super-middleweight champion Saul “Canelo” Alvarez is a massive favorite to defend his title when he takes on John Ryder in front of a packed house at Estadio Akron in Guadalajara, Mexico on Saturday. Is it pretentious to say the arena will be sold out over Cinco de Mayo weekend? Probably not considering Alvarez is fighting on home soil for the first time in over a decade rising to one of the sport’s biggest stars since then. Alvarez is also making his first trip inside the ring since having wrist surgery six months ago. Still, Alvarez opened at -1500 at boxing betting sites.
One of the best to ever strap on the gloves, Alvarez carries little value in the outright market at his price needing a wager of over $1500 to win $100. This is where fight betting in alternate markets makes more sense. There are over/under odds on how many rounds and even better odds on an exact round of when the fight ends. Wagers on the manner of victory are also available. And as we’ve seen recently in North American sports leagues upsets happen. With a record of 32-5 Ryder is no slouch and his price of +881 carries a nice payout should he deliver a shocking upset. It’s not unheard of, just ask Buster Douglas, but it is unlikely.
Bet on fights online at BetRivers sportsbook with odds for every fight on the card on Saturday, May 6, 2023 from Akron Stadium in Guadalajara, Mexico. The main card is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET with the main event expected to get underway around 11 p.m. ET. The bout will air on DAZN pay-per-view.
Alvarez vs. Ryder Boxing Odds
John Ryder +881
Canelo Alvarez -1515
Over 8.5 rounds -115 / Under 8.5 rounds -115
A look at the resume of Alvarez and it’s easy to see why he’s such a big favorite. The winner of multiple championships in four different weight classes and he’s the first and so far only boxer to become undisputed super middleweight champ owning the WBA, WBC, WBO, IBF and Ring magazine titles. And he’s still in his prime at 32-years-old.
One of Alvarez’s two professional setbacks occurred nearly one year to the day when he dropped a unanimous decision to WBA champ Dmitry Bivol in a move up to light heavyweight. Upset with the judge’s scoring Alvarez wanted a rematch but instead it was announced he’d return to super middleweight to defend his titles against Gennady Golovkin. Alvarez won by unanimous decision in the trilogy bout.
An expert counterpuncher, Alvarez displays quickness with his head and body to avoid getting hit, which is always a good thing in the sport. And he’s solid in so many areas making him tough to beat. A strong body puncher, Alvarez also takes advantage of fatigued opponents with excellent conditioning. He always seems to get stronger as the fights progress and isn’t afraid to let the judges decide.
Most so-called experts are predicting an easy win for Alvarez with fight odds reflecting that. However, I mentioned a few things that could be a distraction for the champ. First, he’s fighting in his home state for the first time in over a decade and the attention he’s receiving is overwhelming from ticket demands to interview requests. Second, he recently had surgery for a nagging wrist injury that could have impacted his so-so performances against Bivol and GGG. If it didn’t we could see Alvarez on the decline opening the door for Ryder to pull off a major upset.
And it’s not like John Ryder is some stiff coming off the streets of Guadalajara to take on the champ. The WBO interim super middleweight title holder has won 32 of 37 fights with 18 by knockout. He can’t match Alvarez’s talent level or list of accomplishments, but inside the ring those mean nothing. And Ryder is practically playing with house money at this point.
Following a disputed loss to former super middleweight title holder Callum Smith in 2019, Ryder ripped off four straight wins, but he’s lacking a signature victory that would give bettors hope of an upset. Ryder is an imposing figure with a height and reach edge, but he lacks the knockout blows that would inflict damage. At his price Ryder is worth dropping a few bucks on, but the reality is that Alvarez is the all-around stronger boxer.
UFC Prediction: Canelo Alvarez -1515 / Unanimous Decision
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