AFC Championship Betting Picks- Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs
January 27, 2023
Boxing Picks – Artur Beterbiev vs. Anthony Yarde
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After juicing out at PointsBet Sportsbook in the wild-card round, we had another forgettable showing in the Division Round with our player prop suggestions. I however got a bone to pick with the end results. DeVonta Smith was the most targeted Eagles receiver and led the offense in receiving yards. Unfortunately, his 61 yards weren’t enough to surpass the 64.5-yard impost. Joe Mixon took a backseat to Samaje Perine in the passing game and came up short of his target while going HAM on the ground. The injury to Tony Pollard completely changed the course of the game against the 49ers, and with it, we lost another bet.
The lone winner proved to be Kadarius Toney who went over 30.5 receiving yards on his final catch of the game late in the fourth quarter. We’ve absorbed some tough to stomach losses the last two weeks so let’s get it all back and sweep the board during Championship Weekend!
Bet NFL Championship Weekend Player Props at PointsBet Sportsbook
Brock Purdy Under 19.5 Passing Completions -120
This will be the eighth start and tenth appearance for Mr. Irrelevant. And it just so happens to come in raucous Lincoln Financial Field where you can expect the Philly fan base to not welcome him into their home with open arms. The hostile territory factor paired with Brock Purdy failing to exceed this impost in six of seven made starts leads me to believe the rookie quarterback is going to have his hands full dealing with the Eagles top ranked DVOA pass defense.
Provided San Francisco’s defense is able to keep Jalen Hurts and the Eagles running game in check and the game doesn’t get out of hand, I can’t help but think the Niners utilize Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell so as to alleviate the truckload of pressure supplanted firmly upon the rookie’s shoulders. A rushing yards prop for Mitchell is yet to hit the board. Once it does, hit the over with confidence as he’s gone for 35+ yards in six of the last seven games.
Quez Watkins Over 10.5 Receiving Yards -125
The Eagles slot receiver was the forgotten man in the Eagles passing attack last week in failing to log a single target from Jalen Hurts. That makes it two of the last three games that No. 16 failed to log a single look from his quarterback. So why am I touting the over of his receiving yards prop against the Niners? It’s simple really.
A high percentage of the secondary’s attention will go towards A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, while Fred Warner and the excelled LB core will look to limit Dallas Goedert. That will leave Quez Watkins in a number of 1-on-1 matchups and I’m banking on his speed allowing for his one or two catches to surpass this impost with relative ease. San Francisco has had issues defending the slot (No. 28), and Watkins runs his routes out of the slot just over 71 percent of the time.
If you don’t want to lay the -125 juice at PointsBet, 14.5 is on the board at other spots with reduced vig – I’m comfortable with the over there as well!
Tee Higgins Over 55.5 Receiving Yards -115
Joe Burrow has thrown for 982 yards and an 8:1 TD/INT ratio against Steve Spagnuolo’s defense through three career starts. That’s an average of 327.3 yards per game! His passing yards prop currently clocks in at 280.5. The Bengals passing game will once again feast in this fourth go-round, so it comes to reason that Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins will each have a place at the table.
Higgins has lied dormant for weeks now. Save for a blowup performance against New England in week 16 when he went for 128 yards and caught a touchdown pass, he’s failed to exceed 37 receiving yards in six of his last seven starts! This big bodied receiver is due for a blow-up game, and I can’t think of a better opponent or more exciting stage for that to occur than in the AFC title game against a beatable Chiefs secondary.
Patrick Mahomes Over 285.5 Passing Yards -110
So did Patrick Mahomes suffer a high ankle sprain or not? If he did, the dude is an alien from another world! If not, I’m going to buy into the Chiefs as an organization and believe he truly will be good to go when Kansas City looks to avenge three straight losses to the Bengals with a trip to Super Bowl LVII on the line.
While it hasn’t held up in the W/L column, No. 15 has had nothing but success throwing into the Bengals secondary the last few seasons. Lifetime, Mahomes has completed 69.3 percent of his passes for 840 yards and a 7:1 TD/INT ratio. Lou Anarumo’s defense kept him in check in the week 13 showdown at Paul Brown Stadium in allowing holding him to throw for 223 yards and single touchdown pass. That’s likely still bothersome to Mahomes knowing his team held a 24-17 lead heading into the final stanza but got shutout over the final 15 minutes and lost 27-24.
As it stands right now, PointsBet has the worst offering on the board. The under got hit hard as I was writing this blurb so do your due diligence and seek out the best number before locking it in. It hasn’t been often in 2022-23, but in Mahomes we trust on Championship Sunday!
Bet NFL Player Props at PointsBet Sportsbook
