Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks

By Tom Wilkinson

As we said last week, PGA Tour events with the enhanced prize purses have great fields, while the other tournaments have weaker fields. This week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational has the big prize purse, so all of the world’s top players who are on the PGA Tour will be in the field. A total of 44 of the top 50 in the latest World Golf Rankings are in the field. World No. 1 Jon Rahm is listed as the golf betting favorite at BetRivers. Let’s look at Arnold Palmer Invitational picks.


Venue: Bay Hill Club & Lodge is a par 72 that measures 7,466 yards. The course has hosted this event every year since 1979. The course has played very difficult in recent years, with Scottie Scheffler winning last year with a 5-under par score, while Tyrrell Hatton won with a 4-under score in 2020.


Last Year: Scottie Scheffler shot a final round 72 to win by one shot ahead of Tyrrell Hatton, Victor Hovland and Billy Horschel. Only 10 players finished the tournament under par.


TV Coverage: NBC & Golf Channel


Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds

Rahm, Jon +550

McIlroy, Rory +900

Scheffler, Scottie +1000

Schauffele, Xander +1600

Homa, Max +1600

Zalatoris, Will +1800

Cantlay, Patrick +1800

Finau, Tony +2000

Morikawa, Collin +2000

Thomas, Justin +2200

Sungjae Im +2800

Hovland, Viktor +3300

Day, Jason +3300

Fitzpatrick, Matthew +3300

Hatton, Tyrrell +3300

Young, Cameron +4500

Burns, Sam +5000

Spieth, Jordan +5000

Tom Kim +5500

Lowry, Shane +6000

Mitchell, Keith +6000

Theegala, Sahith +6000

Bradley, Keegan +6000

Matsuyama, Hideki +6600

Kirk, Chris +7000

Conners, Corey +7000

Fleetwood, Tommy +8000

Fowler, Rickie +8000

Power, Seamus +9000

Horschel, Billy +9000

Woodland, Gary +9000

Wise, Aaron +9000

Scott, Adam +9000

Rose, Justin +9000

All other players are listed with odds of +10000 or more




Jon Rahm +550


The favorite in golf betting has been a losing proposition except for Rahm, who has won three times. Despite the fact that Rahm has won as the favorite a few times, favorites overall are still a losing proposition and in a normal year, they are big time losing propositions. I am going against the favorite once again this week.


Value Picks


Scheffler, Scottie +1000


You can make a case that Scheffler is still vastly underrated in terms of the betting odds. He looked really good in winning the WM Phoenix Open and briefly took over the No. World Golf Ranking. We know that Scheffler can play well in difficult conditions, as he won this event a year ago. He also plays really well on Bermudagrass with four of his five PGA Tour wins on that surface. I think you could make a case for Scheffler being the favorite this week and we get him at double-digit odds.


Zalatoris, Will +1800


Zalatoris seems to be rounding into form after suffering from back troubles. He is coming off a 4th at Riviera and his stats were very solid. He usually putts well on Bermudagrass greens and he plays well in difficult conditions. I think he has a chance this week and we get him at 18-1.


Sungjae Im +2800


Last week many people thought Im would get the win, as he was a solid favorite at The Honda Classic, but it didn’t happen. Could a bounce back be in store this week for Im? He has played well on this course in the past and we are definitely getting better value on him than last week.


Keith Mitchell +6000


We are starting to see Mitchell on leaderboards a lot more this year, as he has top five finishes in two of his last three starts. Mitchell has played well in this event in the past with two top six finishes. He just might get into contention this week and we get a good price.


Rickie Fowler +8000


There is no question that Fowler is playing better this season and he could move up enough in the rankings to make it into the WGC Dell Match Play with a good finish this week. He has played well at Bay Hill in the past, as he was 5th after the third round in 2011 and he finished 3rd in 2013. Why not Fowler at a big price this week?


Sepp Straka +20000


How about a huge bomb for this week? Straka played well at the Honda Classic last week and he really putts well on Bermudagrass greens. Since the beginning of last year he has a win, a 5th, a 9th, a 3rd, a 2nd, a 6th and a 2nd place finish on Bermudgrass greens. His overall stats last week were really solid and he just might be able to contend this week and we get him at huge odds.


Check out Arnold Palmer Invitational odds at BetRivers.