Many successful sports bettors like to bet underdogs. Can you bet underdogs in UFC betting and make money? It sounds really good to be getting plus money on all of your wagers, but plus money doesn’t help you very much if your fighter loses. UFC betting is based on money lines so there is no pointspread to even things out. You need to win a certain percentage of the time to win money when betting UFC underdogs. Let’s look at the numbers and whether betting UFC underdogs can be profitable.
Betting UFC Underdogs
It is really exciting when you bet on a fighter at +400 and he pulls off the upset. The problem for you is that those fighters don’t win that often. UFC odds are tilted toward the favorites and for good reason. Favorites in UFC betting have held their own over time and you can’t simply bet all underdogs in UFC betting and expect to win money.
There are situations to look at where betting UFC underdogs can be profitable. One of those situations is where a fighter is getting a lot of public action. Marquee fighters who draw a lot of public money can oftentimes be a good go-against. The underdog in the fight can be undervalued because the public is backing the favored fighter. It doesn’t take many wins to make money if you are getting +300 or more.
Another situation to look at when betting UFC underdogs is when a fighter is making their UFC debut. If you see a small underdog in terms of UFC odds on a fighter making their debut you need to take a strong look at that fighter. Many fighters in their first UFC fight don’t get a lot of respect from the general public because they are unknown. Intelligent bettors do their homework and understand that fighters making their debut can oftentimes present serious value against the UFC betting line.
Another opportunity to bet an underdog in UFC betting is when you get a chance to go against an aging veteran. There are many instances in UFC betting odds where a veteran is hanging around in the UFC well past his prime. It is those instances where the UFC betting odds are based more on name value than on talent. You can get some nice prices on underdogs who are facing over the hill fighters.
UFC Betting Underdogs History
It is always important to see just how well underdogs have done against the UFC betting odds over time. We’ll look at each of the various price ranges to see if there is any particular range that makes money. Let’s start with even money to +122. Those fighters have won about 50% of the time and that means you would have made a little money in UFC betting history. There have been 469 fights in that price range with 234 wins and 235 losses. The next price range is +122 to +150 with underdogs winning 44% of the time. This is another profitable price range in UFC history with 293 wins and 366 losses. The next range is +150 to +186 and it is slightly profitable even though it wins just 39% of the time.
All of the other underdog price ranges are long time losers. The price range +186 to +233 wins 32% of the time. The price range of +233 to +300 wins 26% of the time. The price range +300 to +400 wins just 18% of the time. The price range +400 to +567 wins at 17% of the time. The price range of +567 to +900 wins just 8% of the time. There have been 40 instances of prices at more than +900 in UFC betting history and they have won just three times or 7%.
What history tells us is that the small underdogs are where you can make a little money in UFC betting. Anytime you see an underdog of +200 or more you should probably avoid making the bet simply because history is not on your side. You can still bet big underdogs, but you should know that historically the big dogs in UFC betting have not proven profitable.