Can you make money betting UFC favorites? That is an interesting question considering you don’t usually have success betting favorites in sports betting. Is the UFC different than other sports in terms of betting favorites? Let’s look at this question and also consider some historical factors that will help us answer the question of betting on UFC favorites.
When it comes to betting on favorites in UFC betting there are two schools of thought. First, there are some people who shy away from betting on favorites because you have to win such a high percentage of the time to make money. Second, there are some people who only bet on favorites in UFC betting if they put them into parlays. Is there a third option?
Most serious gamblers will not bet a UFC favorite if they are listed with odds of more than -300. What they will do with big favorites, if they bet them at all, is put them into parlays. It is simply too risky to lay out $500 to win just $100. You have to win almost every single time to make those types of bets profitable. You could win 80% of your bets and still not make any money if you are laying 5-1.
Favorites in Parlays
If you want to bet on favorites in UFC betting then you are probably better off putting them into parlays. You might have three or four fighters listed with odds between -200 and -600. You could parlay all of those fighters together and risk a much lower amount of money. You will need all of the fighters to win to win your parlay, but you would probably win a similar amount of money had you just bet each fighter straight.
Picking Your Spots with Favorites
There is no reason why you can’t bet favorites in UFC betting and make money. There will be many times where laying -200 is a bargain. You may have a fight that looks really lopsided and you have no problem laying 2-1. There are many instances where you can lay money in UFC betting. There are some fights that have substantial edges for one fighter in terms of style, cardio, class, etc. You will gladly lay -200 on a superior fighter. Don’t be afraid to lay a little bit of money in UFC betting when you have the clear advantage.
UFC Betting Favorite History
We thought it would be interesting to know just where the break even point is in terms of UFC betting favorites. We’ll look at all of the price ranges up to -900. If you are looking at small favorites of even money to -122 you will find that they win 52% of the time. Favorites between -122 to -150 win 54% of the time. Favorites between -150 and -186 win 58% of the time. Favorites between -186 to -233 win 69% of the time.
Favorites between -233 to -300 win 73% of the time. Favorites -300 to -400 win 80% of the time. Favorites between -400 to -567 win 83% of the time. Favorites between -567 to -900 win 88% of the time and favorites at -900 or higher win 92% of the time. Just as an FYI, there have been 40 times in UFC history where a fighter has been listed at -900 or higher and they have won 37 of those 40 fights.
Do you know what range of favorites has historically made you the most money over time? The best price range has been -300 to -400 with favorites winning 80% of the time. Favorites have actually performed pretty well in UFC history, but it is hard to just blindly bet all favorites and make money. In fact, small favorites, from even money to -186 have lost money over time. Bigger favorites are in the black, but just slightly, with that range from -300 to -400 being the best performer through the years.
If you are going to bet UFC favorites then you are probably best only betting big favorites and putting them into parlays.
Check out the latest UFC betting odds at top online sportsbooks.