Some of the most anticipated NFL futures each offseason are the NFL Season Win Totals. These odds aren’t typically released until the late Spring or early Summer after free agency and the NFL Draft have had their say and roster turnover has largely been done. Fans of all 32 teams eagerly away their posting in order to see what the oddsmakers think will happen in the upcoming season.
What to Look for When Betting NFL Team Win Totals
There is a bandwagon team every offseason. The bandwagon team is usually one that you want to avoid as they are being overhyped and thus overvalued, but the 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers proved to be the exception to that rule. Tom Brady left New England to sign with Tampa Bay, leading to a severe drop in the Bucs’ Super Bowl odds and lofty expectations for the coming year. There were some hiccups along the way, yet this team came on strong when it mattered the most to win Super Bowl LV.
Generally speaking, you are looking to find value when you bet on NFL Team Win Totals. That value can come in a variety of ways. The most common thing that people consider when betting NFL Team Win Totals though is the quarterback. No position is more important than the signal caller, and a change here can lead to a huge swing.
Whether it’s from the draft or free agency, bringing in a new quarterback usually leads to a shift in a team’s fortunes in one way or the other. A team that hits on a quarterback in the draft can usually consider itself a contender for the near future, but rookie quarterbacks have a steep learning curve.
Patrick Mahomes was the most successful quarterback in recent memory in his first full season under center. Mahomes lit up the league en route to being named the 2018 NFL MVP, but that was in his second year as a starter. He only started one game as a rookie, as Andy Reid wanted to give Mahomes time to grow.
That’s an unusual case as quarterbacks selected in the first round are no longer asked to sit and learn. Most signal callers are thrown into the fire at some point during their first season, as it’s a win-now league and everyone wants to know whether their signal caller will sink or swim. This is important to keep in mind when betting NFL season win totals.
Free agent quarterbacks can make a difference too, but it’s rare to find a true difference maker. Most QBs that sign with a new team in the offseason are either close to retirement or are essentially picked off the scrap heap, so they usually don’t make much of an impact.
Another move that can lead to a big change in a team’s fortunes is a coaching change. Bill Belichick was not a highly regarded head coach during his time with the Cleveland Browns, but we have seen him work wonders with the New England Patriots. Sean McVay immediately turned around the Los Angeles Rams, and Kevin Stefanski helped lead the Browns to their first playoff appearance in almost two decades in his first season with Cleveland.
Conversely, there are the coaches that are a disaster. Typically, league experts are dubious of one or two hires each cycle, and they are usually spot on in their assessments. Bettors can take advantage of this information, as sportsbooks tend to undervalue the impact of a bad head coach.
The most value in betting NFL season win totals can be found in looking at the moves across a roster. If you can take a good overview of the big picture and see which team is making shrewd signings, you can have a big advantage over the oddsmakers. Most fans and observers are only familiar with big names and skill position players, but there is a lot more to a team than quarterbacks, running backs, and receivers.
In particular, moves along the offensive and defensive lines are significantly underrated. The big boys in the trenches don’t get the same recognition as their colleagues, but they have an enormous impact on the game. That was highlighted in Super Bowl LV when Tampa Bay’s dominant defensive line manhandled Kansas City’s backup linemen, causing Mahomes to be completely flustered throughout the game.