The most popular sport to bet on in the United States is American football. The NFL has been the king of the hill in terms of American sports for decades now, surpassing baseball and the MLB before the end of the 20th Century. That means more people are interested in betting on the NFL over any other sport in the US, but it’s not easy to be profitable with NFL betting. This guide will help give you some pointers though.
How to Win Money Betting on the NFL
Line shopping is a distinct feature of winning sports bettors. As we’ve said before, every little bit counts in terms of sports betting. The difference between -110 and -108 is pretty big over time, and the difference between -110 and -105 is enormous. It might not look like much when you are betting $10 or $20 at a time, but it is something that adds up, especially as the stakes are raised.
Key numbers are important too. You’ll find key numbers in a few other sports, but they are especially important in the NFL. Due to the NFL’s unique scoring system, the number 3 is by far the most important number in football. A large percentage of games are decided by exactly three points, so it’s crucial to keep that in mind when the line is a field goal.
You don’t want to grab a bad number when the spread is around three points. If you like the underdog, you want to be able to take that team +3.5 or +3 with favorable vig. Conversely, if you like the favorite, you want that team at -2.5 or -3 with the odds in your favor. That ties into line shopping and why it’s important to have funds available in several sportsbooks if possible. The numbers 4 and 7 are also key numbers.
While it typically isn’t wise to bet teasers, they can be profitable if you adhere to one simple rule. Always make sure that you are crossing 3 and 7 when you bet a teaser. Too many people bet teasers improperly, costing themselves either valuable points or lowering their return on investment.
Some people like to tease teams that are favored by 6 or 7 points, turning the teaser into a simple win proposition. That doesn’t seem like a bad idea on the surface, but you are giving up value. It’s not as bad as say teasing a 4.5-point favorite into being a 2.5-point underdog, yet it’s still not optimal. The best teases cross four key numbers in 3, 4, 6, and 7, and these are the most profitable teaser bets.
As previously mentioned, betting on props and futures is one of the best ways to win money in sports betting. The lines for props and futures are softer and easier to move than game bets, so you can take advantage if you know what to do. It might take time to build up some faith in your knowledge though. Props are beatable, but novice bettors are likely to end up taking a whole lot of overs, as there is an offensive bias.
It can be difficult to stay on top of injuries, and oddsmakers are very quick to adjust the odds when they hear news that a player is out. You can beat the oddsmakers by a few minutes if you are shrewd and follow the right people on social media though. There are some beat writers that are really on top of their teams, and they will break news before the national media gets wind of an issue.
Keep an eye on out for potential winning angles too. For years, the oddsmakers overvalued West Coast teams traveling to the East Coast for games with a 1 p.m. ET kickoff. The jet lag and travel put the teams traveling west to east at a bigger disadvantage than anyone initially believed, and shrewd bettors were able to take advantage of this error.
This has been corrected for in recent years, but there are still winning angles out there that neither sharps nor oddsmakers have picked up on yet. It is more difficult in the computer age, yet it is still possible.