Everyone wants to come up with a system to beat the NFL. The NFL is the premier sport to bet in the United States, and countless sports fans, math junkies, and college students have tried to come up with their way to win. A few have succeeded, but many have failed, and you definitely want to be part of the former group and not the latter. With that in mind, here are some tips to help and some traps to avoid.
How to Win Money Betting on the NFL
In recent years, bettors have found a few profitable angles to help them beat the sportsbooks and win money betting the NFL. One of the most well-known angles was to bet against West Coast teams traveling to the East Coast for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff. Those teams flying cross-country usually had to deal with jet lag and body clock issues due to the time difference, putting them at a distinct disadvantage against their opponents. We have seen sportsbooks adjust to this phenomenon, and teams are doing a much better job preparing for the long haul too thanks to modern technology and new studies.
Another profitable wager has been to jump on Andy Reid’s teams after a bye week. Reid has been one of the most successful coaches over the last two decades in the NFL, leading both the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs to the Super Bowl. The veteran coach does a great job with game preparation, and his teams are 20-3 in the regular season and 27-6 overall after a bye week. That has led to a lot of bettors jumping on Reid to cover the number with two weeks of prep, and he is 21-12 ATS in that situation.
Most coaches don’t care much about the postseason, but it’s clear that John Harbaugh is cut from a different cloth. Harbaugh is 37-12 in the preseason since he became head coach of the Baltimore Ravens in 2008. He went 17-0 between 2016 and 2019, making bettors heaps of money in the process.
Unfortunately, this angle might be a thing of the past due to speculation that the NFL is going to shorten the preseason starting in the 2021 season. There was no preseason during the 2020 NFL season due to COVID, and it became apparent that four games may no longer be needed for teams to get their feet under them.
Things to Avoid When Betting on the NFL
If anyone ever mentions the word ‘Martingale’ to you, run the other way. Martingale Systems are notorious for losing bettors gobs of money. On their surface they might make sense, as they ask for bettors to simply continue to bet on or against a team. No team loses every game or loses forever, so the thought is that a team will eventually win or cover.
However, this scheme doesn’t take into account the fact that people have limited bankrolls and there are limits on games. You can’t continue to bet an infinite amount of money on or against a team for the eventual payoff, and that’s where Martingale Systems run aground.
For example, if you are starting at $10 with a Martingale System, you need to continue to double that bet after each loss. That means $20 after the first loss, $40 after the second loss, $80 after the third loss, and $160 after the fourth loss. In this situation, you are already down $300 when you are looking for just a $10 gain, and if you continue to chase those losses, the results can be catastrophic.
Along those lines, chasing is one of the worst things you can do when betting the NFL. You might want to try to win back your money after a rough Sunday afternoon with a big bet on the Sunday night or Monday night game, but this is almost always doomed to failure. Chasing will end up getting you even if you win back your money a few times, and it can zero out your bankroll.
Don’t bet with your heart either. If you are too big of a fan of your team, that’s something you need to recognize and take into account if you want to be a winning sports bettor.