The Fertitta Center will be rocking come 3:30 ET this Saturday afternoon when the Memphis Tigers stroll into the No. 6 ranked Houston Cougars den looking to rattle off a fourth straight win and cover against the college basketball odds. Their cover streak was barely extended last time out at home in an 80-69 triumph over the Tulane Green Wave as 10.5-point favorites. As for Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars, they’ll enter this tilt coming off a loss for the first time since early December after dropping an 85-83 decision to the SMU Mustangs in Dallas on Wednesday night. With the Tigers streaking and the Cougars failing to cover two of its last three, most CBB bettors are likely to take back a big number with Penny Hardaway’s kids. Don’t do it and I’ll tell you why down below. Just know that Houston will come out guns ablazed with Fabian White Jr. and his mates looking to get right back into the win column against a team it’s recently owned in taking five of the last six overall meetings (1-5 ATS).

Betting Odds Analysis

Memphis hits the road for the first time since January 23 when it scored an 83-81 win and non-cover against the Tulsa Golden Hurricane in a game it went off the board as 3-point favorites. The win was only the second through seven tries on the true road, and they’re 1-6 ATS in those matchups. They will however be catching a heavy allotment of points for this tilt. When catching 10 or more points on the road since 2017, Memphis clocks in 0-5 SU but 3-2 ATS losing by an average of 20 points per game. Houston returns to its home digs looking to build upon its unblemished 12-0 SU and 7-5 ATS records. It’s already closed double-digit home chalk in conference play four times and came out victorious each time while splitting against the closing CBB odds. The over cashed in three of those matchups with just over 130 points scored on average with its opponents being held to less than 55 points per game.

Memphis Tigers

The Tigers got out to an embarrassing start to their 2021-22 campaign with losses incurred against Iowa State, Georgia and Ole Miss on neutral courts to go along with a 2-point loss at home to Murray State as 10-point favorites. It followed that four-game losing streak up with a thumping of the Alabama Crimson Tide as 4-point home dogs before dropping a tough 1-point decision to Tulane right before pulling out a “Shocker” winning outright at Wichita State 82-64. It split its next six games before rattling off four straight wins which coincided directly with Deandre Williams returning to the hardwood. The big man’s rebounding prowess allowed for Memphis to own a decisive +23 advantage on the glass versus Tulane to log the win and cover. He’ll need to come up big again to allow for the Tigers to hang with a Houston team that hits the offensive glass with reckless abandon (No. 4).  

Houston Cougars

The Coogs possession loss to SMU on Hump Day night came as quite the surprise with the team entering the tilt amidst a 12-game win streak. Regardless, Sampson’s kids still sit perched atop the AAC standings with a 9-1 SU record while winning all but three of their 23 played games. Even so, Sugarhouse Sportsbook currently only has them installed -250 chalk to win the conference’s regular season title while DraftKings has them at -700 and FanDuel -650. If you think Wednesday’s loss to the Mustangs was nothing more than a blip on the radar, you might want to think about heading over to SugarHouse and taking advantage of the extreme discount. Personally, I don’t think there’s a team in the conference that can hold their jock with it readily able to throw a balanced attack at all opposition evidenced by owning the No. 6 offensive and No. 14 defensive efficiency ratings per the Pomeroy Ratings.

The Wager

Fingers crossed linemakers overreact to Wednesday night’s proceedings and opens the Cougars up less than 10-point favorites. If they do, you’re going to want to make a nice sized investment on the Coogs minus the points. Though Memphis has come up with some dominant wins and enters this tilt on a four-game win streak, it’s out of its gym for the first time in nearly three weeks and Houston has been dominant on its home floor. It’s also coming off a loss for the first time since December 11! Both teams do a great job limiting 2-point offense with each ranked amongst the top-11, but Houston is more efficient at close range (No. 29). It also defends the perimeter with some of the country’s best (No. 12), and it’s highly likely to turn Memphis over with regularity (No. 24) considering the Tigers turn the ball over with reckless abandon (No. 348). Now don’t get me wrong, Memphis is a solid team with some premiere talent. This just isn’t the right spot to depend on that talent seeing it all the way through. Look for the Coogs snail-like pace (No. 292) to frustrate the Tigers who would much rather speed it up. I’ll likely be taking the points with Memphis when these teams cross paths in the season finale at FedEx, but I’ll be laying the wood in this first meeting; hopefully at a reduced price at SugarHouse!